The next provincial general election is currently set for June, 2026 under the Ontario’s fixed-date election law. Speculation about a vote potentially in the spring of 2025 has bubbled for months. Ford walks through the halls of the Ontario legislature after speaking to media, in May 6.Christopher Katsarov/The Canadian Press
Ontario Premier Doug Ford is still leaving open the option of an early election, sources say, after refusing for months to rule out calling a vote that would get ahead of the potential disruption of a new federal Conservative government or any criminal charges that result from the RCMP probe of the province’s Greenbelt land swap.
But both observers and insiders advising the Ontario government say it would need to provide the electorate with a compelling reason for an early vote that goes beyond political tactics, in the form of a new policy or spending plan for which Mr. Ford’s Progressive Conservatives could say they need a new mandate.
The next provincial general election is currently set for June, 2026, under Ontario’s fixed-date election law. Speculation about a vote potentially in the spring of 2025 has bubbled for months.
Since May, when Mr. Ford unveiled a plan to spend $225-million to put beer in corner stores early, the Premier has repeatedly refused to rule out an ahead-of-schedule election. But he has said no vote would occur this year. The PC Party has also asked all MPPs to declare by year’s end if they are running again.
Two PC Party sources and one senior government source told The Globe and Mail that an early election remains an option. The Globe and Mail agreed not to name the sources, who are not authorized to speak about internal deliberations.
The government source and one of the PC Party sources said the provincial election has to centre around a significant issue, which that PC source said would need to justify deviating from the fixed election date to voters.
The three sources all said that federal political instability makes planning difficult and that the provincial government cannot base its decision on what is happening in Ottawa, where the NDP’s cancellation of its deal with the Liberal minority government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has put the timing of the next Canadian election up in the air.
This makes it harder for Mr. Ford to ensure his vote happens first, before Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre could take over as prime minister and potentially impose spending cuts, rendering governing Ontario more difficult. Also, political strategists are mindful that Ontario often hands election wins to whatever party is not in power federally.
Published opinion polls routinely show Mr. Ford and his party well head of his rivals, even though his government has faced criticism for problems in the health care system and its aborted move to allow a small group of developers an $8.3-billion windfall from allowing housing on parts of the protected Greenbelt area that arcs around the Greater Toronto Area.
On Thursday, the PCs maintained their seat in the Eastern Ontario riding of Bay of Quinte in a by-election prompted by the resignation of cabinet minister Todd Smith. Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie said her candidate’s second-place finish in the Tory stronghold – five percentage points behind the winner – shows that her party is “the only alternative to Doug Ford.” The Official Opposition NDP placed third.
Kate Harrison, a Conservative strategist and vice-chair at Summa Strategies in Ottawa, said the public is souring on governments of all stripes across the country. The by-election results, she said, might be a sign for Mr. Ford “to look at the movement away from incumbents and try to secure a stronger mandate or an equally strong mandate now before there’s more time for that to fester.”
Speaking on a panel at a recent forum in Toronto for political professionals, pollster Nick Kouvalis, a key adviser to Ontario’s PCs, said Mr. Ford “may go early” after announcing a big new initiative in the coming fall economic statement or spring budget. But he also suggested the early-election talk was a PC strategy to keep opposition parties off balance, forcing them to spend money and recruit candidates when they are behind in the polls.
If Mr. Ford wanted to get out in front of any potential charges resulting from the RCMP Greenbelt probe or the likely federal Conservative win in Ottawa, Mr. Kouvlalis said, the Premier could have simply gone to the polls this year.
“The fact is, it’s none of those things. I’ll tell you, I’ll give you a little hint, we just spent 10 minutes talking about an election without talking about any issues. The government didn’t get criticized in this last 10 minutes on any issues,” Mr. Kouvalis said.
Political strategists in Ontario have long been wary of angering voters with an early election, citing the demise of Liberal premier David Peterson’s government in 1990.
In an interview with The Globe and Mail, Mr. Peterson said Mr. Ford will need to come up with a compelling reason to convince voters of the need to go early. In his case, Mr. Peterson said, he believed that with the failure of the 1987 Meech Lake accord, he needed a strong hand to navigate a national unity crisis. But he said he didn’t explain this rationale well in the campaign.
“It became a metaphor for arrogance for some, but there were other issues. Meech Lake, an impending downturn in the economy and lots of other stuff,” Mr. Peterson said.
“And we’d had a very active legislative agenda. And when you do things and move things around, some people get mad at you.”