B.C. Conservatives supporters at their election night campaign headquarters in Vancouver on Oct. 19.Chris Helgren/Reuters
British Columbians will have to wait at least a week before knowing for sure what their next government will look like. The vast majority of the electorate split almost evenly.
Here are some takeaways:
The NDP won. Maybe
When all the polls were counted by the end of the night, the NDP had 46 seats to the Conservatives’ 45 and with the NDP earning only 1.08 per cent more of the popular vote. But two ridings were so close – within 100 votes – that recounts will be automatic. The recounts in Surrey City Centre and Juan de Fuca-Malahat will take place between Oct. 26 and 28. Both ridings had the NDP leading.
The Green Party won two seats, the same number they had following the 2020 vote, but leader Sonia Furstenau lost. She had changed ridings and lost the race for a Victoria-area seat to the incumbent NDP MLA.
Ms. Furstenau had urged voters to give her party the balance of power, a wish that seemed realized. Whoever forms government will likely have to rely on Green support to maintain power.
NDP Leader David Eby shakes hands with supporters at the party's election night headquarters.Jennifer Gauthier/Reuters
Recounts will determine who holds the balance of power
Under Elections BC rules, automatic recounts kick in when the vote spread is 100 votes or less. Candidates in ridings that have been decided by more than 100 – Kelowna Centre, for example, has the Conservative leading by 142 votes – can request a recount if the margin is less than 1/500 of ballots cast.
If the one-seat difference holds, both parties will be knocking on the Greens’ door looking for support to form a minority government.
As well, one MLA will need to be chosen as Speaker. Usually, that person comes from the government benches, but not always. Neither party can afford to give up an MLA for the position.
A man votes in Vancouver.Jennifer Gauthier/Reuters
Results echo 2017
Saturday’s results echoed the provincial election of 2017, when the Liberal premier of the day, Christy Clark, was denied a majority government.
It would take weeks before a government was formed.
First, there were three days of recounting ballots in two ridings, and adding in previously unopened absentee ballots across the province. But there was no change in seat numbers for each of the three parties in the May 9 election – 43 Liberal, 41 NDP and three Green.
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Subscribe nowThe province seemed poised for a Constitutional crisis: Ms. Clark brought in a Throne Speech, but in the end she could not persuade the lieutenant-governor that she could form a government. The Greens rejected a pact with the Liberals, instead signing a confidence and supply agreement with the NDP that held for more than three years.
The B.C. legislature in Victoria.CHAD HIPOLITO/The Canadian Press
Winners and losers
John Rustad is the night’s big winner: He didn’t secure a majority on Oct. 19, but he took a moribund party that hasn’t formed a government in British Columbia in almost a century and in a little more than a year, built a brand that took almost half of the seats in the province. Whether he ekes out a victory, or forms the official opposition, he can claim a historic campaign.
His main rival, NDP Leader David Eby, lost ground and, possibly, government. The New Democrats have a lot to rethink, especially around their major losses in the city of Surrey.
The NDP lost some big players, notably Nathan Cullen, an influential cabinet minister who led the failed attempt this spring to reform B.C.’s Crown lands to allow for shared decision-making with First Nations.
The Conservatives’ inroads are exemplified by the decisive victory in Surrey South by Brent Chapman. Mr. Rustad refused to dump Mr. Chapman whose remarks on Indigenous and Muslim people drew condemnation from election rivals and other critics. He said he would leave it to voters to decide, and a large majority embraced the controversial candidate.
B.C. Conservatives Leader John Rustad and his wife Kim after at his party's headquarters on election night.Chris Helgren/Reuters
The electoral map’s rural-urban divide
British Columbia has returned to a more traditional rural-urban split, with the New Democrats hanging on to many – but not all – of their urban seats, while the Conservatives dominated rural areas.
The NDP held on to their seats in Burnaby while losing their toehold in the Fraser Valley. The vote-rich battlegrounds of Richmond and Surrey saw the NDP lose round. The Richmond seats were divided between the two parties, while the Conservatives picked up a majority of seats in Surrey.
B.C. Conservative supporters watch results come in on election night in Vancouver.ETHAN CAIRNS/The Canadian Press