Good evening, this newsletter will pause tomorrow for the holiday and return on Monday. Now on to today’s top stories:
Ottawa unveils coronavirus modelling estimates
Between 11,000 and 22,000 Canadians could die in the next year as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, in what federal officials say are among the best-case scenarios for the disease. The federal pandemic models released Thursday show that the country could see 22,580 to 31,850 cases by April 16, resulting in between 500 and 700 deaths.
Canada surpassed 20,0000 confirmed and presumptive cases of COVID-19 on Thursday and at least 435 confirmed deaths as a result of the disease.
Canada lifts moratorium on approval of export permits for military shipments to Saudi Arabia
The Canadian government, in the midst of an economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, announced it’s lifting a moratorium on approving new permits for military exports to Saudi Arabia. The government announced Thursday it would begin reviewing export permits applications on a case by case basis after imposing a ban on new permits for shipments of controlled goods to Saudi Arabia 17 months ago in November 2018.
Trudeau accuses Conservatives of holding up aid
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the Liberals are prepared to sit over Easter weekend to pass a massive wage-subsidy package to help the country’s business sector, non-profits and charities. On Thursday, the PM urged the Conservative Party to set aside partisan squabbling and allow Parliament to resume sitting immediately. The Liberals had hoped to have the wage-subsidy legislation tabled and passed this week, but the Conservatives are demanding that there be an agreement to allow for regular sittings of the House of Commons with a small number of MPs being able to question the Prime Minister and his ministers.
Canada sees record-setting job loss numbers as COVID-19 hammers economy
More than one million people in Canada lost their jobs in March, easily surpassing the record one-month decline set in January, 2009, when the economy shed roughly 125,000 jobs. The unemployment rate climbed to 7.8 per cent, with Ontario leading the pack in job losses at 403,000, followed by Quebec at 264,000 and British Columbia at 132,000.
In other economic news:
- A report by the Parliamentary Budget Officer released today says the federal deficit could reach $184.2-billion this year based on the measures announced to date in response to COVID-19. A deficit of that size for the fiscal year that started April 1 would represent a deficit of 8.5 per cent of GDP. The last time the budgetary deficit was near 8.5 per cent of GDP was in 1984-85.
- The coronavirus is derailing summer work plans for Canadian students: According to a recent survey of 50 Canadian employers conducted by career consultancy Brainstorm Strategy Group, 38 per cent of those who were planning on hiring summer students may now reduce or eliminate those positions.
- In the United States,, the Federal Reserve announced a US$2.3-trillion effort to bolster local governments and small and mid-sized businesses as another 6.6. million Americans filed for unemployment benefits, adding to the already 10 million who have filed for jobless benefits earlier this month. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Thursday the American economy could start to reopen in May, contradicting medical experts who say closings and social distancing should remain in effect for much longer to curb the rise of the coronavirus.
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ALSO ON OUR RADAR
Ontario changes guidelines for testing at long-term care centres: Ontario’s top doctor now says that anyone moving into a long-term care facility should be tested for COVID-19, regardless of whether they have symptoms or not. The new guidance reverses a policy that said only patients with symptoms should be tested. Further testing guidelines for all Ontarians will be released Friday.
Funeral homes in upheaval: Just as the virus has pushed Canada’s health-care system to the brink, the country’s bereavement sector is also feeling the strain. Across the country, crematoriums are preparing to operate 24/7 if needed, cemeteries are taking stock of available land, funeral homes are renting out refrigerated vehicles and officials are drawing up worst-case scenario plans to use arenas as temporary morgues if necessary.
British PM Boris Johnson on path to recovery: British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been moved out of intensive care at a London hospital and his condition has been improving, officials said on Thursday. The 55-year-old PM was moved to the intensive care unit of St Thomas’ Hospital on Monday, nearly two weeks after he tested positive for COVID-19 and became seriously ill.
Coronavirus kills black Americans at a disproportionate rate: Lawmakers and community leaders in cities hard-hit by the pandemic have been sounding the alarm over what they see as a disturbing trend: Of the victims whose demographic data was publicly shared by officials – nearly 3,300 of the nation’s 13,000 deaths thus far – about 42 per cent were black, according to an Associated Press analysis.
MARKET WATCH
Global stocks moved higher on Thursday following signs of some success by governments and central banks which have taken additional steps to bolster their economies during the COVID-19 pandemic, while oil prices pulled back from an earlier surge.
Canada’s main stock index rose as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s massive program to shore up the world’s largest economy overshadowed record domestic job losses in March. The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index was up 240.92 points, or 1.73 per cent, at 14,166.63.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 281.48 points, or 1.2 per cent, to 23,715.05, the S&P 500 gained 39.49 points, or 1.44 per cent, to 2,789.47 and the Nasdaq Composite added 62.67 points, or 0.77 per cent, to 8,153.58.
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TALKING POINTS
My uncomfortable reality: Doug Ford is the leader Ontario needs
“I am going to say it, plainly and simply: Ontario Premier Doug Ford is doing an admirable job of shepherding the province, all of us, through this crisis.” - Marie Heinen, lawyer and senior partner with Henein Hutchison
Why Canada’s emergency response benefit rollout might be a mistake
“As more and more of the unemployed, partly unemployed and hard-to-say-if-they’re-unemployed qualify for Canada emergency response benefit, even as Ottawa offers more generous wage supports in the private sector, leaving the public sector as the last place where people have steady work, government may end up paying just about everybody, one way or another. What would that mean for the economy and society? Who knows? We’re all making this up as we go.” - John Ibbitson
We don’t know yet if hydroxychloroquine can treat COVID-19, and Trump’s claims otherwise are dangerous
U.S. President Donald Trump has been touting the drug hydroxychloroquine with all the subtlety of a carnival barker. The principal argument the President has used in support of hydroxychloroquine is the rhetorical statement: “What do we have to lose?” (He repeated that phrase five times at his Saturday media briefing.) “I’m not a doctor but I have common sense,” Mr. Trump added. But “common sense” is not evidence. And “what have we got to lose?” is certainly no way to practise medicine – or policy-making for that matter. - André Picard
LIVING BETTER
A comfortable chair and effective task lighting are crucial to keeping upright while working at makeshift home offices.shironosov/iStockPhoto / Getty Images
These days, many of us are working in spaces not meant to be dedicated home offices, whether it’s a kitchen island or dining table. Though it’s tempting to dismiss propriety and take to one’s bed with a laptop, it’s probably not the best idea. Design expert Beth Hitchcock offers some tips for creating a stylish, comfortable and functional at-home workspace. For starters: Make sure you have a comfortable chair and decent task lighting.
LONG READ FOR A LONG COMMUTE
Ottawa had a playbook for a coronavirus-like pandemic 14 years ago. What went wrong?
A pandemic sweeps across Canada in one or two months. It is spread not only by the sick, but by people who show no symptoms. There are shortages of medical supplies and the health system struggles to keep up. The peak won’t come for months, and it will be accompanied by a surge in deaths. Soon after, the country will brace for a second wave.
All of this is now true for the COVID-19 crisis, but the aforementioned scenario – a warning – comes from a 2006 federal report on pandemic preparedness. Fourteen years later, its words are eerily accurate.
Globe reporters Kathy Tomlinson and Grant Robertson examine how Canada and many other governments around the world significantly underestimated the severity of the coronavirus.
Evening Update is written by Lara Pingue. If you’d like to receive this newsletter by e-mail every weekday evening, go here to sign up. If you have any feedback, send us a note.