Good evening and happy Friday. It’s a busy weekend on the international stage, so we’ll start in Buenos Aires where the leaders of the G20 are meeting.
HERE’S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Drama, agreements and a statement of condemnation at the G20
It’s signed. The trade pact of many names — U.S. President Donald Trump calls it USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreenment), Prime Minister Justin Trudeau calls it CUSMA (Canada, U.S., Mexico) and president Enrique Peña Nieto of Mexico calls it T-MEC (Tratado Comercial Mexico, Estados Unidos, Canada) — is one step closer to replacing the old NAFTA. Mr. Trudeau, Mr. Trump and Mr. Nieto signed the deal this morning at the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires and the only thing left is for the countries' respective legislatures to ratify it.
However, the signing session wasn’t all back-slaps and handshakes. Tension remains because of steel and aluminium tariffs the United States has imposed on Canada and Mexico and the retaliatory tariffs Canada and Mexico placed on U.S. products.
Also, the Trump administration is pressing Mexico to give the United States the power to punish specific automakers with plants in Mexico by making some companies subject to tariffs while exempting others. Adrian Morrow, our Washington correspondent, explains it would allow the White House to favour some companies by giving them room to expand and punish others (General Motors anyone?) by leaving some of their production unprotected.
So what does it all mean? Lawrence Herman, a former Canadian diplomat who practices international trade law at Herman & Associates, explains what comes after the trade agreement is signed by the three countries' legislatures, including where there might be sticking points.
All this North American trade friction, though, is dwarfed by the trade war between the U.S. and China. The White House is still on track to impose tariffs on US$200-billion of Chinese imports in January. Mr. Trump is to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on Saturday. Mr. Trump signalled today things look good, but really, does anyone know what he is thinking. Michael Babad writes this morning how what happens during the meeting will signal how markets respond Monday.
Also today, Canada spearheaded a G7 foreign minister’s statement that jointly condemns Russian aggression in Ukraine and urges the release of detained naval crews. The leaders are urging restraint, respect for international law and prevention of further escalation.
The G20 concludes tomorrow. No doubt there will be plenty more news over the weekend and analysis well into next week. Follow Globe and Mail mobile alerts for major breaking news.
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Journalist Ben Makuch of Vice Media arrives to the Supreme Court of Canada in Ottawa on Wednesday, May 23, 2018.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
Reporter must give RCMP material about accused terrorist: Supreme Court
In an unanimous decision, Canada’s Supreme Court ruled 9-0 that the state’s interest in prosecuting crime outweighs the media’s right to privacy in gathering the news. The decision reaffirms a lower court’s ruling that Vice Media reporter Ben Makuch must give the RCMP material he gathered for stories about an accused terrorist. In 2014, Mr. Makuch wrote about Farah Mohamed Shirdon, formerly of Calgary, who left Canada to join the Islamic State and subsequently appeared in an ISIL propaganda video.
The RCMP obtained a production order under the Criminal Code, directing Mr. Makuch to provide documents and data relating to communications with Mr. Shirdon. Vice News brought an application to quash the order, but it was dismissed –a decision upheld by the Ontario Court of Appeal and the Supreme Court.
B.C. joins Alberta in pledge to impose cleanup timelines on oil, gas wells
The reaction to last weekend’s Globe and Mail investigative report on idle oil and gas wells continues. Yesterday, British Columbia announced it will impose timelines to clean up thousands of idle oil and gas wells and Saskatchewan has pledged to study the measure. The move follows a similar commitment from Alberta earlier in the week. The Globe’s six-month investigation showed that about 20 per cent of all oil and gas wells in B.C., Alberta and Saskatchewan are inactive, and that there are 54,147 more idle wells in those three provinces than there were in 2005.
Gary Mason weighs in on the looming economic and environmental disaster in his weekend column, and argues that oil-producing provinces seem to be content to kick this problem down the road: "There is a complete lack of transparency around the level of risk facing taxpayers in all this – taxpayers who are going to be left holding the bag to the tune of multiple billions of dollars. But the government of Alberta, for one, isn’t going to say peep to an oil industry under siege. Can you imagine Premier Rachel Notley saying: ‘We are going to toughen up the rules around inactive wells and it’s going to cost you money.’ ”
Grewal resignation announcement made days after PMO learned of RCMP probe, met with MP
Sources to whom the Globe has granted anonymity have helped shed light on events that lead up to MP Raj Grewal’s resignation announcment. As Daniel Leblanc reports, the Prime Minister’s Office learned two weeks ago that police were asking questions about Mr. Grewal’s financial affairs, which prompted the first meeting with senior PMO officials on Monday, Nov. 19. At that meeting, Mr. Grewal suggested he would receive treatment for his gambling problem and that he could manage his debt. but by Wednesday, Nov. 21, it had become clear that Mr. Grewal was struggling to deal with debt that totalled more than $1-million. Mr. Grewal announced on Nov. 22 that he would resign as the MP for Brampton East, although he has not yet done so officially.
A family, claiming to be from Colombia, is arrested by RCMP officers as they cross the border into Canada from the United States as asylum seekers on April 18, 2018 near Champlain, N.Y.Paul Chiasson/The Canadian Press
Ottawa on pace to spend more than $1-billion over three years on unauthorized border crossings: watchdog
A new analysis from Parliamentary Budget Office shows that managing the influx of asylum seekers at unauthorized points along Canada’s border with the United States is on pace to cost Ottawa more than $1-billion over three years. The report, which was released yesterday, estimates the government spending at $340.2-million last year, $367.8-million in the current fiscal year and a projection of $395.9-million in 2019-20. It said the average cost for each migrant who entered Canada between border crossings is $14,321 for the entire refugee claim process, reports Bill Curry and Michelle Zilio.
BRIEFLY
British Prime Minister Theresa May said yesterday she is focused on persuading lawmakers to back her Brexit deal at a vote in parliament on Dec. 11.
Thousands remain without power after a storm smacked the region with strong winds and heavy, wet snow hit Atlantic Canada. Nova Scotia Power says 14,000 customers were still in the dark (down from 250,000 on Thursday); 29,000 in P.E.I. and 7,600 in New Brunswick are without power.
Bruce McArthur will stand trial in January 2020. The alleged serial killer faces murder charges in the deaths of eight men with ties to Toronto’s Gay Village.
Indigenous Services Minister Jane Philpott says the federal government plans to introduce legislation on Indigenous child and family services, written in co-operation with Indigenous groups, that will prohibit taking children away from families because they live in poverty or because they have unresolved health issues.
A U.S. federal judge ruled today that Paul Manafort will tentatively face sentencing on March 5 after U.S. Special Counsel Robert Mueller said Manafort had breached his plea agreement.
MARKET WATCH
TSX lifted by health care, tech stocks but energy shares weigh
Canada’s main stock index closed flat on Friday as another slide in oil prices pulled down energy shares, while latest domestic data showed that economic growth was lower but in line with expectations in the third quarter. Health care and technology stocks helped lift the index. The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX Composite Index closed flat Friday, up 3.78 points, or 0.02 per cent, to 15,197.82. Global equity markets kept moves tight ahead of weekend talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
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WHAT’S POPULAR WITH READERS
David Saint-Jacques of the Canadian Space Agency, a member of the International Space Station (ISS) expedition 58/59, attends his final exam at the Gagarin Cosmonauts' Training Centre in Star City outside Moscow on November 14, 2018.STR/AFP/Getty Images
A Canadian takes a leap into space science’s future
When a Canadian astronaut arrives on the International Space Station, he’ll be the first of a new generation to explore the great beyond. Here’s how he got there and what he’ll be doing next. Science writer Ivan Semeniuk not only introduces us to David Saint-Jacques in this rich multimedia video feature, he also discusses the legacy of the International Space Station and Canada’s place in exploring space. It’s a can’t miss.
TALKING POINTS
How much does Justin really care about the middle class?
“My friends in Alberta are a little quizzical about all the fuss [about the GM plant closing in Oshawa]. Sure, they’re sympathetic. But unlike Ontario, Alberta has seen tens of thousands of well-paying jobs vaporize in the past few years. Nobody comes to interview those workers any more. “And all we get from the Trudeau Liberals is platitudes,” says Jason Kenney, Alberta’s United Conservative Party leader.” — Margaret Wente
Why Canada cares – a lot – about that UN Security Council seat
“As international tensions mount and the United States retreats from global leadership, Canada and like-minded countries must do what they can to sustain co-operation and the wobbling structures of a rules-based international system. This task extends far beyond the United Nations, but the world body remains the flagship of the multilateral system.” — Roland Paris
Illustration for Graham Roumieu predictions featureIllustrations by Graham Roumieu
What are your predictions for 2019?
And a little fun for the weekend – 2018 was a year in which Donald Trump made pals with Kim Jong-un (and turned on Justin Trudeau), NAFTA died and was reborn as USMCA and Facebook became a symbol of technology run amok. Would you have predicted those events? Put a little thought into what you think will happen in 2019, send us a note and we’ll publish the best answers in a future issue.
LIVING BETTER
In Network, Tatiana Maslany blurs the lines between TV and theatre on Broadway
A year after Orphan Black ended its run, the Emmy-winning Canadian Tatiana Maslany, who played a dozen clones in the sci-fi hit, is this week making her Broadway debut in Network – Tony-winning Belgian director Ivo van Hove’s trippy stage version of the 1976 film about television that won legendary screenwriter Paddy Chayefsky one of his three Academy Awards. The Globe’s theatre critic J. Kelly Nestruck says it’s impossible for even the biggest theatre snob to get angry about any of the choices that Tatiana Maslany is making as she’s landed on New York stages this season.
I want to get my boss wine as a hostess gift, but I’m not rich. Any suggestions?
Wine and spirits columnist Beppi Crosariol answers the question, recommending the letter writer neither skimp nor splurge. He suggests to find a medium price point, maybe 20 to $30 and starts his suggestions in the southern Rhône Valley.
LONG READS FOR A LONG COMMUTE
Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador listens during a meeting with Ricardo Salinas and other business leaders in Mexico City, Thursday, Nov. 22, 2018.Rebecca Blackwell/The Associated Press
How Mexico’s new president is remaking the country to fit his vision
Andrés Manuel López Obrador will be sworn in on Saturday as Mexico’s new president. But leftist “AMLI,” as he is known, has been the de facto leader of Mexico for several months –- an unprecedented move for a transition, in Mexican political history -- and has made a series of stunning, high-impact decisions that have roiled stock markets, crushed the peso, and raised serious questions about what the next six years will look like.
The Globe’s Latin America correspondent Stephanie Nolen profiles the new president and explains why 'he feels he can do anything.’
Evening Update was written by Michael Snider. If you’d like to receive this newsletter by e-mail every weekday evening, go here to sign up. If you have any feedback, send us a note.