Climate change gets the COP26 spotlight so no country can ignore it

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The world is about to witness a chaotic circus of a climate change summit. And it may be exactly the sort of galvanizing spectacle that’s needed right now.

Over the next two weeks, roughly 20,000 people – world leaders, top business executives, Hollywood celebrities and royals among them – are expected to descend on Glasgow, Scotland, for COP26, the United Nations climate conference billed as a make-or-break opportunity to contain greenhouse gas emissions to a non-catastrophic level.

Despite a surge of COVID-19 in the host country, diplomats and academics and lobbyists will crowd restaurants and pubs to rub elbows. Visitors and locals will be treated to corporate-sponsored public events, exhibits and art performances. While Scottish castles have reportedly been rented out for swanky VIP events, protesters will take to the streets to demand more from the elites.

All the pomp and circumstance will leave organizers and participants open to accusations of allowing the hard work of multilateral negotiations that are supposed to be at the heart of the event to be overshadowed, and of hypocrisy given the carbon footprint of all the flights to get there.

But the hope has to be that the fear of looking ridiculous, if officials emerge from all this with negotiating stalemates and weak platitudes, will also compel participants from the nearly 200 countries involved in the climate negotiations at the centre of all the chaos to up their climate ambition, and work closely together on shared solutions. The same goes for representatives of heavily polluting industries engaging in the unofficial events surrounding the negotiations.

That might not happen if all concerned were able to go about their business more quietly. Countless previous international meetings have produced underwhelming results. And underwhelming would be disastrous for the credibility of all concerned, as evidenced by the UN’s Environment Programme reporting this week that even if all countries’ current emissions-reduction goals were met, we would still be on pace for global warming of at least 2.7 degrees C by the end of the century – well above the threshold at which the planet would be terribly and irreversibly altered.

Emissions and expected warming based on pledges and current policies

Current policies

Pledges and targets

Optimistic net-zero targets

2.0°C pathway

1.5°C pathway (2015 Paris Agreement target)

Emissions

In gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent

60

Warming

projections

by 2100

In Celsius

Historical

emissions

50

2.7–3.1

40

30

2.4

20

2.0

10

1.6–1.7

0

1.3

-10

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: GRAPHIC NEWS

Emissions and expected warming based on pledges and current policies

Current policies

Pledges and targets

Optimistic net-zero targets

2.0°C pathway

1.5°C pathway (2015 Paris Agreement target)

Emissions

In gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent

60

Warming

projections

by 2100

In Celsius

Historical

emissions

50

2.7–3.1

40

30

2.4

20

2.0

10

1.6–1.7

0

1.3

-10

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: GRAPHIC NEWS

Emissions and expected warming based on pledges and current policies

Current policies

Pledges and targets

Optimistic net-zero targets

2.0°C pathway

1.5°C pathway (2015 Paris Agreement target)

Emissions

In gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent

60

Warming

projections

by 2100

In Celsius

Historical

emissions

50

2.7–3.1

40

30

2.4

20

2.0

10

1.6–1.7

0

1.3

-10

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: GRAPHIC NEWS

Nobody involved seriously expects COP26 to solve climate change in itself. The realistic aim is to create enough momentum – through newly ambitious national emissions-reduction commitments, more specific pledges and alliances to transition off of fossil fuels, stronger commitments from rich countries to help poorer ones with climate change mitigation and adaptation, and new transparency mechanisms – to accelerate the hard work that needs to happen on domestic fronts when delegates return home.

For that, the “spotlight effect” – as Michael Oppenheimer, a Princeton University professor who has played leading roles with the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, describes the accountability impact of such a large gathering – may prove critical.

While COP normally happens annually, the spotlight will shine brighter than usual at this edition, for which the stakes and hype have only grown since it was postponed from last year because of COVID-19.

Recent months have been marked by dire warnings, including from relatively conservative organizations such as the International Energy Association, about the enormous emissions-reducing investment needed to avoid temperatures disastrously surpassing 2 degrees above preindustrial levels. (The goal remains to limit the rise to 1.5 degrees, which would be much better.) Yet after global emissions declined in 2020 owing to the pandemic, fuelling hopes of a green economic recovery, they are rising again as life in some countries returns to normal.

Will countries' latest pledges on emissions by 2030 make things better, worse or the same as what they promised before?

New pledges will result in lower 2030 emissions

New pledges not comparable to prior pledges*

New pledges will result in equal or higher

2030 emissions

No new or updated pledges

*Not enough information to determine impact of new pledges relative to previous pledges

THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME EMISSIONS GAP REPORT 2021

Will countries' latest pledges on emissions by 2030 make things better, worse or the same as what they promised before?

New pledges will result in lower 2030 emissions

New pledges not comparable to prior pledges*

New pledges will result in equal or higher 2030 emissions

No new or updated pledges

*Not enough information to determine impact of new pledges relative to previous pledges

THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME EMISSIONS GAP REPORT 2021

Will countries' latest pledges on emissions by 2030 make things better, worse or the same as what they promised before?

New pledges will result in lower 2030 emissions

New pledges not comparable to prior pledges*

New pledges will result in equal or higher 2030 emissions

No new or updated pledges

*Not enough information to determine impact of new pledges relative to previous pledges

THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME EMISSIONS GAP REPORT 2021

The good news, and perhaps proof of concept, is that the Glasgow summit has already succeeded in nudging some governments to raise their levels of climate ambition. COP26 was long planned as the edition at which countries would make new emissions-reduction pledges, beyond those in the landmark Paris Agreement at COP21 in 2015. Wary of arriving at the party empty-handed, many of them – including Canada, which earlier this year boosted its commitment to a 40 per cent reduction from 2005 levels by 2030, from 30 per cent previously – have done just that.

“Let’s be clear,” says former environment minister Catherine McKenna of Ottawa’s new target. “We knew we had to do more for this COP, so we did.”

But there are also major causes for concern, heading in, about ambition levels and the ability of governments to meet them. China, the world’s biggest polluter, has yet to set a new emissions target, and President Xi Jinping appears unlikely to attend. Likewise for Russia’s Vladimir Putin. President Joe Biden has set lofty new targets for the United States, but his domestic climate agenda is currently at risk of collapse under opposition from within his own party, undermining his credibility in re-establishing the U.S. as a leader in climate diplomacy.

A global energy crunch, which has sent prices skyrocketing, has contributed to worries about turbulence that transitioning off fossil fuels could cause, despite arguably making the case for greater reliance on cleaner sources instead. Many poor countries, already frustrated by lack of help as they face climate change’s worst consequences, are unable to participate as robustly in the conference as richer ones, partly owing to poor access to COVID-19 vaccines. The pandemic will cast a general shadow over the proceedings, amid a continuing surge in infections in the host country.

Still, the show must go on. So for attendees, including a large Canadian delegation that includes Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson, the challenge will be to draw off all the energy and urgency in Glasgow to ensure there is greater collective will and stronger accountability coming out of the summit than there was going in.

There are ways to do that, both through COP26′s formal talks and the more casual opportunities afforded by would-be climate leaders spending so much time in one place together.

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As at other editions of COP in the past few years, the official negotiations are mostly about trying to finalize the rules around the Paris Agreement – how countries set, meet and co-operate on their emissions targets.

That most prominently involves Article 6 of the agreement, which is supposed to allow for the creation of an international carbon market, in which countries that exceed their emissions-reduction commitments can sell credits to countries failing to meet theirs.

In theory, it’s meant to encourage ambition by rewarding overachievers; the danger is that if the market is poorly constructed, it could give high emitters too easy a fix.

Talks around it have repeatedly been derailed by disagreements around imperatives such as how to avoid the double-counting of emissions cuts (i.e. both countries involved in a trade claiming credit for them), and how to account for credits accumulated under a flawed and short-lived trading system that preceded Paris.

In an interview, Mr. Wilkinson (who led Canada’s COP26 preparations while serving as environment minister until this week) called Article 6 “the most significant” of the outstanding negotiating items, and expressed some optimism about finally resolving it.

Canada, he suggested, might be able to be “a bit of an honest broker, in trying to find positions that will allow us to move forward in terms of climate ambition, but do so in a way that gets everybody on the bus.”

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Another major negotiating item, which some COP veterans see as even more important than the credits-trading scheme, is strengthening transparency mechanisms so that countries can’t fudge numbers while self-reporting their emissions.

Insiders familiar with the negotiations say that may require some assistance to developing countries that lack resources to meet higher reporting standards. But there are also governments that have been resistant because they’re unaccustomed to outside scrutiny of their data and operations, with China viewed as a particular obstacle. “The most valuable thing would be for China to show some flexibility on the transparency issue,” Prof. Oppenheimer said of his hopes for any final agreement coming out of the conference. “I don’t think anything comes close, honestly.”

A third hope for the negotiations is that they will produce common time frames for future emissions-reduction commitments. That would be an improvement from some countries placing their targets further in the future than others. Relatedly, it’s possible there could be some agreement about the ambition of those targets being raised more frequently, rather than just around every fifth COP, as is currently the case.

There are a few other, fresher items that could conceivably find their way into the final text. Developing countries will likely be pushing for stronger recognition than in the Paris Agreement of the need for investment in adaptation to consequences of climate change that are already unavoidable, and common goal-setting related to it.

But there are limits to what can be achieved at the table. COP negotiations operate on a consensus basis, in which nearly all countries have to reach agreement for any item to make it through – not exactly a recipe for swift and nimble progress.

To come close to matching outside expectations, participants will also need to find ways to build momentum through alliances and side deals, and by generally embracing peer pressure as much as possible.

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“I think the approach of Mr. Trudeau should be to say not much will happen from the official process,” says Guy Saint-Jacques, a former chief climate negotiator for Canada who admits he has grown disillusioned with the negotiations themselves. “So let’s have some quality time with other leaders.”

At the highest level, that should involve still pushing for newly ambitious emissions-reduction targets for countries that haven’t yet set them, even though the deadline for submitting them to the UN in advance of this COP has already passed. “I’m sure that in the corridor, there will still be pressure,” Ms. McKenna said. “Like, [U.S. presidential climate envoy] John Kerry will be taking aside key countries and saying, can you do more?”

For Canada, there may be more of a role to play in rebuilding developing countries’ trust, which is one of the summit’s overarching challenges.

Leading into COP26, Mr. Wilkinson and German State Secretary Jochen Flasbarth were tasked by the host British government with spearheading an effort to make good on a pledge by rich countries to provide US$100-billion annually in climate finance to poorer ones, which was supposed to happen by 2020. It reflected that Canada and Germany had taken some initiative by upping their annual contributions to that fund.

But a report produced by those two countries showed that the promised annual sum still might not be reached until 2023 – showing the need for a continued push at the conference itself.

“Canada has been invited to play a central role in the climate finance discussions,” says Eddy Perez, the international diplomacy manager for Climate Action Network Canada. “It should not end on the delivery of the plan.”

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More than just trying to get short-term climate finance commitments, there is a lot of room for leadership in formulating a more reliable and sophisticated long-term plan – one that has a greater share of grants rather than loans, designates specific funds for making infrastructure more climate resilient and ensures the money is going to the countries where it’s most needed.

There won’t be a better time to get the ball rolling than when representatives of governments on both sides of the equation are all in one place together, surrounded by private-sector executives whose investments in the developing world the US$100-billion is supposed to help leverage.

Then there are opportunities to try to build momentum around specific policy approaches to reducing emissions, rather than just the broad targets.

That includes trying to add to the list of 41 countries – along with subnational governments, power utilities, pension funds and other interests – that have joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance. Members of the group, launched by Canada and the United Kingdom at COP23 in 2017, pledge to get off the dirtiest of fossil fuels by 2030, and offer support and expertise to each other in the process.

There are similar coalition-building prospects around tackling methane emissions, the preservation of forests and other nature-based solutions, and other pathways whose necessity is clear enough that firm commitments should be exactable from dozens of countries, if not the entire conference.

Mr. Saint-Jacques, meanwhile, suggests Canada’s best potential contribution may be to try to build a “coalition of the willing” around carbon pricing.

That’s more of a reach, given many governments’ fears about incurring domestic backlash. But it’s a subject that will at least be on the radar at COP26, amid talk of jurisdictions that have introduced pricing mechanisms (notably the European Union) imposing tariffs on those that have not, and recent reports suggesting that Mr. Biden’s administration may be taking an interest in carbon taxation after initially steering clear of it.

Mr. Wilkinson confirmed that his government will point to its implementation of a rising carbon price, and political survival while doing so, to “try to engage some of the countries that are perhaps a little bit more on the edge” of following suit.

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But even countries that may be at the forefront of some forms of climate policy, such as carbon pricing, can expect to be taken to task in the next couple of weeks if they’re laggards on others. Canada, for instance, will inevitably be called out – possibly by other delegations, certainly by outside advocates and protesters – for the continually massive carbon footprint of its oil sands.

That, in turn, could lead Mr. Trudeau’s Liberals to kick-start the process of developing shrinking caps for emissions from oil and gas production – as they promised during the recent federal election campaign – before they otherwise might.

And that, at least, is the idea: Standing in the spotlight produces some combination of pride and shame, causing international leaders to take responsibility for a crisis that none of them can solve on their own. Of course, things could all go terribly wrong – devolving into finger-pointing that allows countries to take comfort in each other’s inaction, feeding cynicism that officials and executives are more interested in schmoozing than leading. But at this stage, with untenably slow progress to avert disaster and the economic recovery from COVID-19 providing a chance for acceleration, going big is worth a shot.

COP26 will “feel like a bit of a zoo,” concedes Simon Donner, a prominent climate scientist at the University of British Columbia who sits on the federal government’s Net-Zero Advisory Body, which is part of a new climate accountability structure modelled somewhat on what other countries have done. “But at the same time, this is the biggest collective action problem in our history. Maybe we do need to have a big meeting.”

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