The results of Tuesday’s election were enough to hand Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi a third mandate, but a diminished one.Adnan Abidi/Reuters
Ganesh Patil stayed up until 3 a.m. Tuesday morning watching the results of the election in India from his home in Ottawa. His phone dinged constantly – non-stop messages from the Indo-Canadian Facebook and WhatsApp groups he belongs to, their members passionately debating the results.
As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a historic third term Tuesday – albeit with just 240 seats, forcing his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party to rely on coalition allies to secure a majority – Mr. Patil was just one of thousands in Canada’s vast South Asian diaspora following along with ardent interest. And for Indo-Canadians like him, the tensions between Canada and India have only increased their interest in the politics of their native country.
“With what we’ve just experienced, with the government clashes and the shutdown of consulates, it directly affects our lives,” said Mr. Patil, who immigrated to Canada from Maharashtra state 12 years ago.
Last year, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau publicly accused India in the killing of Canadian Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, sparking a major diplomatic rift between the two countries. India denied the accusation, and the year since has seen escalating tension between Ottawa and New Delhi, including India abruptly suspending visa services for Canadians.
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India has since resumed some of those services, but not without first disrupting the lives of the many Canadians who had to cancel travel plans to India to attend weddings, funerals and family reunions.
“We’re all just sort of holding our breaths, waiting,” said Ravi Jain, a Toronto-based immigration lawyer.
“These leaders just don’t like each other,” he said. “As long as Modi’s in power and Trudeau’s in power, it’s going to have an impact on this very important relationship.”
The results of Tuesday’s election were enough to hand Mr. Modi a third mandate, but a diminished one. He has been credited with driving India’s fast-growing economy, but in recent years has led an increasingly polarizing agenda, advancing Hindu nationalism and taking aim at the country’s Muslim population.
After this week’s election, he will have to rely, for the first time, on the support of regional allies.
Parmod Chhabra, who lives in Ottawa, also stayed up until the early hours Tuesday, only going to sleep after it became clear a result wouldn’t be known until late in the day. Mr. Chhabra is the president of the India Canada Association and had been expecting, based on polling and news coverage leading up to the election, a landslide victory for Mr. Modi.
“We were very surprised and shocked when we saw the results,” said Mr. Chhabra, who supports Mr. Modi. “But he’s still going to be the prime minister, so it’s good news.”
Mr. Chhabra immigrated to Canada from New Delhi 40 years ago and didn’t always pay close attention to Indian politics. “Of course, we are Canadians first and we follow Canadian politics,” he said.
But Mr. Modi’s leadership over the past decade – and then the recent tensions between the two countries – led to his renewed interest.
On the other hand, Ron Macwan, who came to Canada from Gujarat state in 2018, was relieved that Mr. Modi fared more poorly this time around.
“The Prime Minister should not use Muslims as an excuse to get votes,” he said.
While Mr. Macwan is no longer able to vote there, he said his family and many of his loved ones are still in India.
“So whatever happens in India will affect me. That’s why I was relieved – my family’s still there.”
Nazir Karnai, who runs Explore India, a Vancouver-based travel agency, has also been watching the landscape carefully.
He said there has been a steep drop in tourism between Canada and India in recent years. The pandemic was partly to blame, as is a reduction in India’s travel marketing. But part of it, too, is the tensions between the countries.
“The tensions have impacted travel and have impacted a lot of travel agencies,” he said. “The roots between Canada and India are very close. … But it has affected people and it has affected businesses.”
Still, experts said the election results won’t likely affect relations between the two countries.
“My guess is that it will not make much of a difference,” said Narendra Subramanian, a professor of South Asian politics at McGill University.
He said that although Mr. Modi will now have to rely on the support of allies, those allies have not been particularly outspoken on either the killing of Mr. Nijjar or Indo-Canadian relations in general.
“I don’t think it’s a priority for any of the parties,” he said.
Reeta Tremblay, professor emerita of comparative politics at the University of Victoria, echoed that opinion.
She said that, over the past year, the dominant narrative in India regarding Mr. Nijjar’s killing has been that Canada’s allegations are absurd and politically motivated. She added that, among the other political parties there, “nobody’s questioned that narrative.”
The reactions she’s heard from Indo-Canadians so far have reflected the broad diversity of views within Canada’s large South Asian communities.
Among the most staunch Hindu groups, she said, there’s disappointment in seeing a weakened Mr. Modi. “But I think the Sikhs, in general – Sikhs and Muslims – are probably sleeping better after these elections.”