From left: BC NDP Leader David Eby, BC Conservative Party Leader John Rustad and BC Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau speak to reporters during the general election campaign in Vancouver on Oct. 2, 2024.DARRYL DYCK/The Canadian Press
The B.C. election’s outcome will depend on absentee votes and judicial recounts, as a provisional tally of mail-in ballots has not changed any seat counts, though it has widened the NDP’s leads in two close ridings and put the party within striking distance in a third.
The last trickle of ballots, counted a week after B.C.’s election day, has only added to the drama. After an initial count on the night of Oct. 19, the NDP were leading in 46 seats to the Conservatives’ 45, while the Greens held the balance of power with two. In the legislature, 47 seats are needed to form a majority government.
Elections BC reported that there were 66,074 ballots to be considered as part of the final count. Mail-in ballots were counted on Saturday and Sunday, while absentee ballots – which account for about 1 per cent of total votes – will be counted on Monday.
In an update on Saturday, the office reported that, in the riding of Juan de Fuca-Malahat, NDP candidate Dana Lajeunesse now leads Conservative Marina Sapozhnikov by 106 votes, up from 23 after the initial count. In Surrey City Centre, NDP candidate Amna Shah is ahead of Conservative candidate Zeeshan Wahla by 178 votes, up from 93.
Both ridings were also subject to automatic recounts that began Sunday because each had fewer than 100 votes between the top two candidates after election night. As well, there are at least 185 and 175 absentee and special ballots set to be counted in Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey City Centre on Monday.
The fate of the B.C. government lies partly in the hands of this diverse Surrey-area riding
Elections BC said Sunday that the Surrey City Centre recount was expected to conclude that night, while the Juan de Fuca recount was expected to conclude on Monday.
Meanwhile, in Surrey-Guildford, Conservative candidate Honveer Singh Randhawa’s lead over NDP candidate Garry Begg fell to just 12 votes, down from 103 after the initial count. There remain 226 absentee and special ballots to be counted in this electoral district on Monday.
In Kelowna Centre, where Conservative Kristina Loewen had been ahead of NDP candidate Loyal Wooldridge by 148 votes after election night, Ms. Loewen’s advantage has been reduced to just 72 votes, with 228 absentee and special ballots yet to be counted. This riding was also subject to a recount on Sunday because of a transcription error, Elections BC said.
Absentee ballots can include votes from outside of one’s electoral district, while special ballots can include votes from hospitals and isolated communities.
If the difference between the top two candidates in an electoral district after the conclusion of final count is less than 1/500th of the total ballots considered, there will be an automatic judicial recount in that district.
B.C.’s political landscape was reshaped by the collapse of the governing NDP’s opponent, BC United, in the lead up to the election, paving the way for the rise of the Conservatives. Under Conservative Leader John Rustad, the party that won less than 2 per cent of the vote in the last election produced a strong challenge to the NDP in a race in which the issues of housing, affordability and crime and public safety dominated.
University of B.C. political science lecturer Stewart Prest said that, while there has been some concern among observers over what has been described as a drawn-out process for the results, it is well within normal election parameters.
“The reason why it is taking this amount of time is because Elections BC is following the legislative rules laid out in the Election Act. There is a schedule by which close counts are resolved and recounts are undertaken. Indeed, the schedule is moving more quickly than in previous elections,” he said.
“The only reason we’re continuing to watch this unfold with such bated breath is because these are a number of very close results, and it is a polarized election, and a polarized voting public, and so tempers, it seems like, are running high.”
B.C. Premier David Eby says he's been told by the Green Party that it's too early to begin talks about entering some form of minority government agreement after Saturday's still undecided provincial election. The NDP were elected or leading in 46 ridings, the B.C. Conservatives in 45, and the Greens were elected in two.
The Canadian Press