A sample voter card being used to demonstrate the voting process using a new electronic tabulator, at the Elections BC office in Victoria, on Sept. 25.CHAD HIPOLITO/The Canadian Press
British Columbians will choose their next provincial government on Saturday in a campaign that has been too close to predict. What is certain is that the political landscape after Oct. 19 will be far different than anything that could have been anticipated even a few months ago.
There are two parties in contention to win, plus some wild cards – a strong list of independent candidates and a third party hoping to play a starring role should the province end up with a minority government. No matter how the breaks go, British Columbians can count on a more polarized legislature when it next convenes.
The New Democratic Party has, in some ways, campaigned against its own record by promising change after seven years in government. Leader David Eby is offering cash relief in the form of a ‘grocery rebate,’ more middle-income housing, better health care services and an expansion of involuntary care for people with significant mental health and addictions issues. NDP promises will take the deficit to record heights to pay for new services, including before-and-after school care.
The Conservative Party, led by John Rustad, existed in name only in the past election, when it garnered less than 2 per cent of the vote. Now, it is in a position to topple the governing party. For the past year, the B.C. Conservatives have been riding a wave created by the federal Conservatives, and their campaign has mimicked Pierre Poilievre’s tone and tenor with the promise of “common-sense change.”
B.C. Tory fortunes were boosted even higher when, just weeks before the official campaign launch, their rival for centre-right votes abruptly dropped out of the race. With the BC United party out of the way, the Conservatives offer voters the only alternative to the NDP to form government.
Mr. Rustad has painted a bleak picture of British Columbia under NDP rule, saying people are dying of drug overdoses in the streets because of failed harm-reduction strategies, the cost of living has outpaced incomes because the private sector has been hobbled, and schools have become centres of ideological indoctrination of students.
Mr. Rustad’s platform is less centrist than the politics of BC United, a party that advanced climate action and introduced SOGI – a school program to support sexual orientation and gender identity.
A government led by Mr. Rustad would ban SOGI and censor material in classrooms that it deems to be “activist ideology that could send kids down a dangerous path.” It would kill the province’s carbon-pricing regime, and roll out a welcome mat for private-sector investment, especially in natural-resource development, by slashing government regulations.
Mr. Rustad’s campaign has been beset by controversy over statements that he and some of his candidates have made related to gay rights, climate change, vaccines and more. When Mr. Rustad was repeatedly asked to drop Surrey South candidate Brent Chapman over racist comments, he declined to take action or comment because his candidate had retained a lawyer “so it would be inappropriate to say more.”
Despite the controversies, the Conservative Party appears to be in a statistical dead heat with the NDP, as voters express dissatisfaction with affordability, health care and public safety.
Veteran campaign strategist and pollster Greg Lyle, president of Innovative Research Group, says the NDP has the resources to out-campaign the Conservatives in the final days of the race.
“I’m not saying it’s one of the best I’ve ever seen, but the NDP have a solid, professional team that can respond to what’s happening,” he said in an interview. By contrast, the Conservatives have been struggling to build and run a campaign at the same time. “The Tories are, ‘Where are the bathrooms?’ ”
But the ground game may not matter if voters are in the mood for a change in government.
Norman Stowe, managing partner of the public-relations firm Pace Group Communications, helped deliver the message to BC United Leader Kevin Falcon that he should bow out to make way for the Conservatives.
”At the end of the day for the Conservatives, it just depends on how angry people are with the way the province is going, and whether that is greater than some of the missteps that the Conservatives have had.”
On key issues, the NDP and Conservatives offer different paths forward.
The Conservatives want to expand private-sector health care, and they would fly patients out of province for health care if B.C. waiting times are too long.
Mr. Rustad has promised a tax rebate to reduce the cost of housing. Beginning with the 2026 budget, $1,500 a month in rent, mortgage interest and strata fees will be exempt from provincial income tax. The exempt amount will increase annually to a maximum of $3,000. When fully implemented, renters and homeowners would save up to $1,800 a year.
On the opioid crisis and related public-safety concerns, the Tories would expand access to treatment and recovery services, and end the province’s prescribed alternatives program known as “safer supply,” which aims to lessen or sever a person’s reliance on the toxic, illicit drug supply by providing them with pharmaceutical alternatives.
The New Democrats emphasize the need to improve primary care with more efforts to recruit and retain doctors and nurses, and they tout their work to connect patients with family doctors by improving the compensation model, which has brought more GPs back into family practice.
In response to the Rustad tax rebate, Mr. Eby promised to get money into peoples’ pockets sooner. His relief plan would deliver cash to 90 per cent of households starting early in 2025, with $500 for individuals or $1,000 for households, and then shift to a tax rebate in the following years.
To address the crisis of mental health and addictions, the NDP plans to expand involuntary care, and to broaden publicly funded addiction treatment and support.