B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad, left, and B.C. NDP Leader David Eby, address their supporters on election night, which finished with a split electorate.DARRYL DYCK/The Canadian Press
British Columbians will have to wait at least a week before learning who will form their next government after the NDP ended voting day with only one more seat than the BC Conservatives.
By midnight Saturday and with 99 per cent of ballots counted, the results had the NDP with 46 seats to the Conservatives’ 45, with two seats for the Greens. The NDP received just one per cent more of the popular vote than the Conservatives. Polls had shown the parties evenly divided since before the election started, a trend that remained stubbornly locked.
But of the 46 seats claimed by the NDP, two of them have margins of victory of less than 100 votes, triggering an automatic recount under Elections BC rules. The agency said recounts will take place Oct. 26 to Oct. 28 as the ballot count for all ridings is finalized.
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Neither party leader conceded late Saturday night.
“This election is not over,” said Conservative Leader John Rustad, who noted he led a party that hadn’t formed government in almost a century to very nearly unseating a party with a long, established history and two terms in office.
A man walks to a Vancouver polling station on Oct. 19.ETHAN CAIRNS/The Canadian Press
The close vote means the two Green MLAs will be pivotal in the days ahead as the NDP scramble to persuade the Lieutenant-Governor that it can lead a government.
The Greens – and British Columbians – have been here before.
The evening was an echo of the provincial election of 2017, when the Liberal premier of the day, Christy Clark, was denied a majority government. It took weeks before a government was formed.
Ballots were recounted in two ridings, but there was no change in seat numbers: 43 Liberal, 41 NDP and three Green.
The province seemed poised for a Constitutional crisis: Ms. Clark could not persuade the Lieutenant Governor that she could form a government. The Greens rejected a pact with the Liberals and instead joined a formal arrangement with the NDP. That relationship shattered when then-premier John Horgan called a snap election, earning a majority in 2020 but badly burning his former partners.
B.C. Conservative supporters watch results come in on election night in Vancouver.ETHAN CAIRNS/The Canadian Press
On Saturday, Mr. Eby went out of his way to praise the Green Party and its leader, Sonia Furstenau.
Ms. Furstenau lost her seat after she changed ridings. But she will hold significant influence as the legislature undergoes a repeat of the 2017 drama, the year she was first elected.
“There are many values that we share in common with the Green Party and I am committed to working with them,” NDP Leader David Eby said Saturday.
Mr. Eby acknowledged that Mr. Rustad and the Conservatives – a party that received less than two per cent of the popular vote in the 2020 election – “spoke to the frustrations of a lot of British Columbians. Frustrations about the cost of daily life, frustrations about crime and public safety.”
“We’ve got to do better. And we will do better,” said Mr. Eby, sounding exhausted and chastened.
In her concession speech, Ms. Furstenau indicated her party would be unlikely to support the Conservatives. Mr. Rustad has questioned climate science, though he has acknowledged that climate change is real.
Ms. Furstenau referred to the torrential rain that had soaked large swaths of B.C.’s south coast and Vancouver Island on election day in suggesting that propping up a Conservative government might be a bridge too far for the Greens.
“It’s a strange time in politics when, during an atmospheric river, people come out and vote for a party that’s denying the reality of climate change.”
In his speech, Mr. Rustad committed to doing whatever it takes to force another election.
“We will look at every single opportunity from Day One to bring them down and get back to the polls.”
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Among the winners Saturday night were the NDP’s former housing minister Ravi Kahlon and former attorney-general Niki Sharma. Bruce Banman, who left the Official Opposition BC United to sit with Mr. Rustad, won his seat.
A boisterous, loud cheer erupted from Conservative headquarters upon learning newcomer Brent Chapman had won his Surrey South riding. Mr. Chapman was heavily criticized during the campaign for a 2015 Facebook post in which he referred to Palestinian children as “inbred” and “time bombs.” He apologized.
He also had to clarify comments he made in 2017 that appeared to question whether anyone was killed in the shootings in a Quebec mosque or at Sandy Hook school in Newton, Conn. Mr. Chapman later said he had hired a lawyer and would no longer be commenting on his past social media posts.
This spring and summer, the Conservatives surged in the polls. BC United Leader Kevin Falcon, whose party had been the Official Opposition and had held power in B.C. for 16 years under its previous BC Liberal banner, changed the political landscape by announcing BC United would stand down from this election after its power brokers defected to the Conservatives.
Some former BC United MLAs chose to run instead as Independents, with some rejected as Conservative candidates and others uncomfortable with that party’s stance on issues such as climate change.
Other candidates – and Mr. Rustad himself – were attacked over controversial statements related to gay rights, climate change, vaccines and racism. Those details were gathered in a large dossier by the BC United research team and leaked out after Mr. Falcon’s abrupt decision to cancel his party’s campaign.
Angelo Isidorou, a 27-year-old free speech activist who became the Conservatives’ executive director, said in an interview his party might have picked up more seats if it had replaced longstanding candidates with more polished politicians.
Mr. Isodorou noted there were two ridings where those Independents siphoned too many vital votes from Conservative candidates.
“Could I have been ruthless and just fired candidates that stuck with us since the beginning? Yes, but ultimately, I do not want this party to become the BC Liberal Party 2.0 and there is a limit to how much you can just chop heads off for political expediency,” said Mr. Isidorou, who was targeted by BC United’s opposition researchers over his online support of far-right influencers.
B.C. Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau speaks to supporters at election headquarters in Victoria after her loss in the Victoria-Beacon Hill riding.CHAD HIPOLITO/The Canadian Press
Nathan Cullen, the high-profile cabinet minister responsible for controversial changes to the management of Crown lands in the spring, lost his seat in Bulkley Valley-Stikine to Conservative Sharon Hartwell.
Mr. Cullen introduced changes to the Land Act that would have paved the way for shared decision-making powers over public lands with Indigenous groups. There had been almost no public consultation, and the government had to abandon the bill in the face of a strong backlash from landowners and resource industries.
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BC NDP Leader David Eby makes his way to the stage to address supporters on election night in Vancouver, on Oct. 19.DARRYL DYCK/The Canadian Press
From the beginning of the campaign, the two main parties cultivated a stark partisan divide, while the Green party and a record number of Independents pushed a message that a minority government – like the NDP-Green alliance that ran B.C. from 2017 to 2020 – would deliver better results for the province.
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The election centred on three major issues of concern to British Columbians: Health care, the cost of living, and public safety.
BC Conservative Leader John Rustad walks on stage to address supporters on election night in Vancouver, on Oct. 19.ETHAN CAIRNS/The Canadian Press
The Conservatives swept aside the attacks, and Mr. Rustad instead painted a grim picture of B.C. under seven years of NDP rule, saying people are dying of drug overdoses in the streets because of failed harm-reduction strategies, the cost of living has outpaced incomes because the private sector has been hobbled, and schools have become centres of ideological indoctrination of students.
The NDP acknowledged throughout the campaign that British Columbians are unhappy, and promised cash relief in the form of a “grocery rebate,” more middle-income housing, better health care services and an expansion of involuntary care for people with significant mental health and addictions issues. The NDP also committed to delivering before-and-after school care.
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The Conservatives’ promised to scrap carbon pricing – just as soon as the federal election is called. Beginning with the 2026 budget, the Conservatives would offer tax exemptions on $1,500 per month in rent, mortgage interest and strata fees, with the exemption eventually rising to $3,000 per month. Mr. Rustad wants to cancel a program that supports sexual orientation and gender identity in schools, and ban books in the education system that it deems to advance an “activist ideology.”
The provincial deficit, projected to reach a record $9-billion in this fiscal year, is set to rise because both parties have made promises worth billions of dollars annually.
To dig out of that hole, the next government will be counting on a growing economy to pay the bills.
The NDP platform forecasts GDP to rise by 3.1 per cent annual, while the Conservatives promised to balance the budget within 8 years, assuming an annual rate of growth of 5.4 per cent. The Conference Board of Canada, the country’s largest private economic analysts, expects the provincial economy to grow by an average of 2.1 per cent in the years ahead.