Melanie Cheng, vice-president of the Graham Bruce Elementary parent advisory council, stands on the field of Graham Bruce Elementary School in the Renfrew-Collingwood neighbourhood of Vancouver on July 12.Kayla Isomura/The Globe and Mail
More than 7,500 new residents moved into Vancouver’s bustling, culturally diverse Joyce-Collingwood neighbourhood between 2016 and 2021. At least another 1,800 are expected to come in the next five-year period, according to City of Vancouver data.
Besides the downtown core, the eastside Renfrew-Collingwood neighbourhood (of which Joyce-Collingwood is a part) has the highest population density in Vancouver, 2021 census statistics show.
The B.C. Ministry of Education estimates that schools in the Vancouver School District will see roughly 10,000 more students by the 2031/2032 school year.
But the Vancouver School Board’s data paints an entirely different picture, one of decline, not growth. And the difference in the visions has left parents of students attending schools the Vancouver School Board says it needs to shutter or sell off frustrated and confused.
“There’s this huge disconnect,” said Michael Hooper, a professor of planning at University of British Columbia and the parent of a child who attended the recently closed Queen Elizabeth Annex on the city’s west side.
The Ministry of Education are relying on data from several sources: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, Statistics Canada and BC Stats, as well as private sector economic forecasts and the Ministry of Education and Child Care.
In contrast, the Vancouver School Board is relying on data gathered from Vital Statistics BC, which is updated every year, to track the annual birth rate, and on data from the Canada Revenue Agency to track child care benefits data. Those metrics lead to the board’s estimations of the youth population by age, as well as tracking movement in and out of the city.
Under its enrolment forecast for the area, student population is expected to drop by nearly 5,000 students between 2022 and 2032. The VSB says K-12 enrolment in its schools dipped below 48,000 in 2020, leaving elementary schools in some catchment areas operating at less than 60 per cent capacity and some high schools operating at less than 80 per cent.
As a result, the Vancouver School Board has proposed selling or leasing long-term a strip of land on the soccer field at Graham D. Bruce Elementary School and to permanently shutter Sir Guy Carleton Elementary. (Carleton Elementary has been temporarily closed since 2016 when it was damaged by a severe fire.) Both are in Joyce-Collingwood.
Annika Williams playing a game of badminton on the field of Graham Bruce Elementary School on July 12.Kayla Isomura/The Globe and Mail
“The Carleton site presents potential opportunities for alternate community use and capital revenue generation for the board. Some of these opportunities can only be realized through a long-term lease of the site or fee simple sale of a portion of the site … Permanent school closure is a necessary precursor to consideration of site surplus declaration by the board,” the school board said in a notice of meeting from this past spring.
The Vancouver School Board’s effort to realize extra revenue by off-loading property at a time when all levels of government – federal, provincial and municipal – have been aggressively trying to build more housing has mystified parents at Graham Bruce and beyond. The VSB’s enrolment forecast and the proposals and decisions driven by it – including shutting down a small French immersion school elsewhere in the city in June – have been met with concerns and opposition.
Critics like Prof. Hooper point out the district’s data not only contradicts B.C. Education Ministry’s projections, but also disregards the city’s plans for massive new housing developments and federal ambitions for welcoming a half-million new immigrants to Canada every year starting in 2025.
VSB superintendent Helen McGregor said the district’s projections have been “incredibly accurate over time, and continue to be.”
She said the school district works closely with the city and the province, as well as organizations and First Nations.
But Prof. Hooper says the VSB’s numbers are ignoring the massive housing projects already planned for Vancouver, including the Indigenous-led development at the Jericho Lands on the west side of the city (13,000 homes), the Squamish development at the foot of the Burrard Bridge near downtown (6,000 units) and development plans at the Heather Lands (2,600 units).
“This short-term plan that doesn’t take into account development change. It is just not able to keep pace,” said Prof. Hooper.
Unlike other planning agencies working out 30 to 50 years, he said, “the VSB is really unique. It is looking out, at this point, only seven years.”
Ms. McGregor said district staff have met with Squamish nation numerous times throughout their Sen̓áḵw housing development process and are working at identifying potential students that may be coming out of that.
Rachel Major (right) aims for the birdie during a game of badminton on the field of Graham Bruce Elementary School on July 12.Kayla Isomura/The Globe and Mail
Information provided by the city government shows 1,070 units have been approved in Joyce-Collingwood and are expected to be built over the next five years. As well, a further 796 units are estimated to complete beyond the fifth year (this does not include new units created under new missing middle policies if approved by the city council this year), and another 863 units are pending approval.
But Ms. McGregor argued these developments aren’t expected to yield a large increase in school-aged students.
“We studied developments as they actually come to be and look at how many children come out of those new developments, and we did that and looked at them. We’re just not seeing the children coming out of them as people are portraying in the planning,” she said.
Parents at Graham Bruce have launched a petition against the VSB’s proposal to sell or lease long-term part of the school’s field. Meanwhile, the VSB plans to determine this fall whether the 0.4 hectares of land is surplus to the needs of the district.
“I was in shock, and I was angry. I felt that there was a lack of transparency about what is, would be, the intended use of the subdivided land,” said Melanie Cheng, vice-president of the school’s parent advisory council.
Ms. Cheng was once a student at Graham Bruce, as were her three children.
“If we dispose the site now, we’ll never get them back,” she said.
Education Minister Rachna Singh was not available for an interview. Her office issued an unattributed statement saying each school district completes their own enrolment projections for planning purposes. Enrolment projections often change over time given fluctuating variables, the statement notes.
Seven out of nine school trustees voted in favour of closing Carleton at a board meeting in May. VSB’s previous reports suggest students from the former Carleton catchment could be accommodated at nearby schools and that the damaged school would remain at high seismic risk even with several million dollars of investment.
“It’s always difficult to have to consider closing a school,” said trustee Janet Fraser, who voted to support the closure of Carleton at the meeting. She urged the board to consider the best way for the site to be used, adding “it shouldn’t be tied to selling the site.”
The two trustees who opposed the closure – Jennifer Reddy and Suzie Mah – expressed a lack of confidence in VSB’s projections and stressed these decisions cannot be rushed.
“So once we decide to close a school or surplus land, those are irreversible, those will be lost to the public forever. And that is a very heavy decision for me,” said Ms. Reddy.
Andy Yan, director of Simon Fraser University’s City Program, said there are many different ways of predicting population growth and numbers can be impacted suddenly by unexpected things like a pandemic or a swift change in federal policy around immigration.
“The shorter the time, the finer the geography, the greater the uncertainty,” he said.
During uncertainties, the first principle is “do no harm,” he said. And in this scenario, it means not to sell land.
He said the land could be used for other things, such as a community centre or green space.
“The minute that it’s sold, to say, a private sector developer, that is lost.”