Former Mayor Naheed Nenshi in Calgary on Feb. 5, 2021.AMBER BRACKEN/The New York Times News Service
Naheed Nenshi spent his political career shunning overt partisan antics and championing municipal councils as the level of government that affects citizens the most. Now, Calgary’s former mayor is poised to embrace provincial party politics as he sets his sights on taking down his onetime university classmate, Premier Danielle Smith.
But first he will need the New Democratic Party to embrace him. The Official Opposition is in the midst of a leadership contest to replace Rachel Notley and Mr. Nenshi is expected to join the race March 11.
“I’ve really been touched by the number of people who are excited about the future of Alberta and asking me to run,” Mr. Nenshi told The Globe and Mail in a text message Thursday. “I’ve thought about it hard, and I’ll have some more to say about it next week.”
Mr. Nenshi would be a latecomer to the race, the NDP, and the style of politics necessary to capture the crown. But he is also one of the most recognizable figures in Canadian politics and a stalwart of progressive values.
His signature colour is purple, a blend of Liberal red and Conservative blue. In Alberta, his 11 years as mayor are held up as evidence of the province’s centrist, leftist and urbanist streaks. Calgarians first elected him as mayor in October, 2010. Two months later, Torontonians opted for Rob Ford.
Four women with seats in the legislature entered the leadership contest in February and the president of the Alberta Federation of Labour was accepted as a candidate Thursday, according to Elections Alberta. The NDP would have to waive its membership requirements to let Mr. Nenshi run.
His participation in the race would force the Alberta NDP to re-examine what kind of political vehicle it wants to be. Traditionally, the NDP in Canada has a stronger sense of identity, community and membership compared with their competitors, according to Lisa Young, a political scientist at the University of Calgary.
“They are less open to an outsider coming in, even with star power,” she said. “At the same time, they very much want to win the next election.”
The NDP, under Ms. Notley, ended 43 years of conservative rule in Alberta when it won the 2015 election, with an assist from right-leaning voters splitting their support between two other parties. The losing parties then merged and, under the United Conservative Party banner, trounced the NDP in the 2019 election.
Ms. Young views Mr. Nenshi’s expected candidacy as a merger proposal between Calgary’s urban progressives and the NDP. In the 2023 election, the NDP won 14 of Calgary’s 26 seats, up from three after the previous election, but not enough to bump the UCP from government.
“He could be reassuring to those middle-of-the-road Calgary voters who just couldn’t bring themselves to vote for the NDP,” she said. “The price is, he has to be in charge.”
Sarah Hoffman, a leadership contestant who served as Ms. Notley’s deputy in government and opposition, does not think NDP members will warm to Mr. Nenshi.
“If he wants to finish second, he should enter the race,” she said in an interview. “My membership sales go up every time he talks about entering the race.”
Ms. Hoffman is the leadership candidate most closely aligned with the party’s traditional values, which centre on social justice and labour rights. Long-time party members, as well as recent newcomers, are skeptical of Mr. Nenshi’s new-found fondness for party politics, according to Ms. Hoffman.
“They are worried about somebody from the outside who hasn’t ever really called himself a New Democrat being the leader of the party,” she said. “They are motivated to be unapologetically New Democrat.”
Ms. Hoffman is based in Edmonton, the provincial NDP’s political fortress, where it controls all of the city’s 20 seats. In Calgary, support for the NDP is far less loyal. Mr. Nenshi could attract progressive and moderate voters to the party, but he also brings baggage from his years in office.
Cheryl Oates, a principal at GT&Co Executive Advisors and former strategist for Ms. Notley, thinks Mr. Nenshi can attract a new cohort of NDP followers while garnering support from long-time members who place priority on beating the UCP.
“The membership wants to win the next election and they are going to choose the person that best positions themselves to do that,” Ms. Oates said. “When it comes to standing up to the very well-polished public rhetoric of Danielle Smith, Nenshi can certainly do that.”
Mr. Nenshi would be the most recognizable name on the NDP leadership ballot, even as a rookie partisan. But in order to win, he will have to siphon support from other candidates and sell memberships, which will test his team’s ability to organize and campaign outside his familiar territory.
Albertans have until April 22 to buy a membership that would make them eligible to vote in the contest. Ballots will be mailed June 3 and the party will announce its new leader June 22.
The winner needs support from 50 per cent, plus one, of the votes cast and will be determined using a ranked preferential ballot.
While other leadership candidates have a head start on selling memberships and fine-tuning their messaging, Mr. Nenshi’s name recognition and communication skills may allow him to catch up, Ms. Oates said.
“In terms of being able to deliver a succinct message through multiple channels of media, he’s a master.”
Rakhi Pancholi, a two-term MLA from Edmonton, said Mr. Nenshi will attract lots of attention but that will not necessarily translate into votes.
“Airtime is one thing, but ground game is another,” the leadership candidate said.
Another candidate, Kathleen Ganley, a Notley-era cabinet minister and three-term MLA from Calgary, said Mr. Nenshi provided an “incredibly tepid” endorsement of the party in the past election.
“I’m just not sure that that’s really the energy we need to win it in 2027,” she said.
Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse, a first-term MLA; and Gil McGowan, the president of the Alberta Federation of Labour, are also competing to replace Ms. Notley.