United Conservative Party Leader Danielle Smith waits to make an election campaign announcement in Calgary, on May 11.Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press
Alberta is well-acquainted with natural disasters, but the early-season nature and ferocity of the wildfires in the northern part of the province this spring make them stand out.
There are 20 out-of-control fires, spread out across a vast swath of boreal forest. Thousands of people have been forced out of their homes, and the Little Red River First Nation has lost about 85 structures. Firefighters from outside the province are streaming in, while the Canadian Armed Forces have been brought in for airlifts and engineering.
Though cooler weather this week helped, this hot, hot weekend will be a test. Temperatures will reach 30 C on Saturday and Sunday in Grande Prairie. Alberta Wildfire, the government agency, said crossover conditions – already seen earlier this month when some of the fires began – will be part of the mix. Crossover happens when the numerical value for the ambient humidity is lower than the temperature.
It’s a recipe for wildfire, and it could make a terrible situation in Alberta even worse. It also brings a series of dilemmas for the provincial election campaign, which has logically taken a backseat to the disaster at hand.
Not only is the campaigning more subdued than it might have been, but it also leads to the unusual situation in which United Conservative Party Leader Danielle Smith has to actively do the job of premier. Usually, candidates step away from any policy during an election campaign, except, of course, when the province is facing an emergency.
Understandably, Ms. Smith looked flustered in Calgary on Thursday morning at a UCP event as she switched from premier mode – talking about the wildfire – to partisan attacks against the NDP. She should have left any and all discussion of the wildfire situation to the Government of Alberta afternoon briefing.
And in premier mode again on Friday, Ms. Smith toured the County of Grande Prairie by helicopter, accompanied by Todd Loewen, the Minister of Forestry, Parks and Tourism, and Marshall Smith, who served as chief of staff in the Premier’s office.
There are still many political implications beyond images of Ms. Smith acting in premier fashion during an election. The UCP is also being lambasted for cutting its wildfire response capacity. In what seems an ultimate example of being penny-wise and pound-foolish, the province in 2019 cut the elite team of firefighters – the Rapattack team – trained to rappel from helicopters to get at wildfires early, while they only covered a few hectares.
Documents obtained under Freedom of Information legislation and supplied to The Canadian Press found that the government said Alberta had initially planned to replace the Rapattack crews by dangling firefighters beneath flying helicopters and depositing them at the fire site. But Transport Canada blocked that plan, saying it was too dangerous. The documents also acknowledge that beating through the bush to get to hot spots and clear landing pads would cost time.
Whichever party forms government, the wildfires place local emphasis on what a changing climate means – whether that’s policy and spending on adaptation (and firefighting), or more detailed emissions policies from one of the world’s biggest oil-producing jurisdictions.
These fires stand out because of how early they’ve come and how much land they’ve burned. But they’re just one event on a long list of terrifying wildfires in Western North America in recent years – including Fort McMurray in May, 2016. We know there will be more “unprecedented” fires.
And the wildfires, of course, have ramifications for the election campaign itself. At least one municipal official, the mayor of Yellowhead County, has called for the election to be postponed. UCP and NDP candidates in fire-affected areas have paused their campaigning.
Speaking at a stop in Calgary on Thursday evening, NDP Leader Rachel Notley said she is staying in close touch with people on the ground in fire-hit areas. But she didn’t have any plans to tour there.
Wildfires are impairing air quality across Western Canada, reversing decades of progress
“Generally speaking, when people are in the midst of fighting wildfire, politicians are not really your best foot forward in getting the actual fire controlled,” she said.
If the situation worsens, Elections Alberta might also be forced to take more drastic actions. Right now, the non-partisan agency is providing voting options – such as special ballots – to those forced out of their homes. The office is watching to make sure polling stations are still intact.
Further actions by Elections Alberta could be even more dramatic in what’s expected to be an incredibly close election.
“If the Chief Electoral Officer concludes we no longer have the ability to provide voting services or access to voting, we will make an application to the Court of the King’s Bench to discontinue the election in an individual electoral division,” spokesperson Michelle Gurney said in an e-mail.
Alberta has 87 ridings, and applications to discontinue voting need to be made for each – based on whether a disaster is affecting the ability of people to vote. Once that application is made by chief electoral officer Glen Resler, the decision would rest with the court.
There’s another political dimension for Albertans to contend with. Ms. Smith came to lead the UCP in large part by winning the votes of those who despised the pandemic rules of Jason Kenney and other cabinet ministers. She’s now in the premier’s chair herself at a time when the province again faces an emergency situation, in which people are suffering, the outcome is unknown and mistrust of the government is running high.
A video in which local officials earlier this week answered questions for Grande Prairie residents forced to leave their homes and farms put some of these issues on display.
Over the course of the meeting, there were wholly understandable concerns expressed about the safety of property, pets and livestock left behind in a heart-wrenchingly quick evacuation. There was anger over a lack of firefighting resources and communication, and local bulldozers and manpower not being put into use. There was lots of thanks given for the work of firefighters.
Things got darker at points, too. People spoke about forcibly driving through evacuation lines to get to their homes.
“This is like COVID all over again,” one man shouted. “We dealt with this for three years and we’re done.”
These are takes Ms. Smith might have explored or encouraged as a radio host or podcaster. Now she is Premier. How does she respond? How does she govern? We might find out as early as this weekend.