Alberta releasing new climate plan based on the idea that it, not Ottawa, is best-positioned to implement policy

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Alberta has released its own emissions plan premised on the argument that the province, not Ottawa, is best positioned to implement environmental policies. For the first time, the province has a goal of being carbon neutral by 2050 – the same aim as major oil sands producers, and the federal commitment for all of Canada.

But the province argues, unlike Ottawa’s blueprint for emission reductions, that its plan will be grounded in reality – there is a large gap between the federal promised target for reducing the oil and gas industry’s emissions and what an internal analysis, or Alberta, says is achievable by 2030. “Alberta’s plan will cut emissions, not economic growth” is the first line and theme of the document. The province’s course of action also takes into account the new focus on energy security and costs to consumers, and emphasizes not forcing production cuts to meet emissions targets.

“Canada has set targets and they’ve never met a single one,” Alberta Environment Minister Sonya Savage said in an interview with The Globe and Mail.

“We’re not going to ever be successful reducing emissions by using prescriptive policies or attaching caps with unachievable targets. You can’t do that – it won’t work if there’s not viable technology to get there.”

However, unlike the federal government, the Alberta plan doesn’t set specific, near-term goals for emission reductions – say by 2030 – that might help bring the 2050 goal to fruition. There’s no guarantee the 2050 goal will be legislated or regulated. Many details are still a work in progress.

The province says it’s still doing emission assessments in each sector, looking at technology, costs and time frames, as well as policies needed to accelerate reductions. There’s an argument to be made that Alberta had years to be better prepared than this, and is using the pretext of complexity to kick the can down the road.

“This is a report, not a plan,” said Simon Dyer of the Pembina Institute.

It’s certainly a multiyear project. Alberta’s 66-page Emissions Reduction and Energy Development Plan released on Wednesday is a rundown on the province’s environmental policies, where it’s difficult to discern what is continuing, and what’s new. Although the energy and industrial powerhouse introduced North America’s first industrial carbon price in 2007, the province’s emissions increased in line with the expansion of oil and gas operations. The new Alberta plan does note that the most recent national greenhouse gas emissions inventory shows that the province’s annual emissions are down to 256 megatonnes in 2021, from 281 megatonnes in 2015 – in large part because of a coal-fired power phaseout.

But this is the first emissions plan from the governing United Conservative Party – meant to fill a long-standing provincial policy vacuum the federal government was happy to fill. And it’s released just days before the beginning of the official election campaign, and what will be a hard-fought race between the UCP and Alberta NDP.

This could be viewed as UCP political posturing before voting day. But speaking to how much more difficult and expensive decarbonization will be in emissions-heavy Alberta compared to other parts of the country, the two political parties are often not as far apart as you might expect. The UCP once pledged to eliminate the emissions cap the NDP government set for the oil-sands sector – to hold its GHG emissions below 100 megatonnes per year. But Ms. Savage said this week that cap (which isn’t in legal force as of yet) could actually be lowered.

NDP Leader Rachel Notley’s government introduced a climate plan with a consumer carbon price and scheme for phasing out coal-fired power in 2015. But she also says to attract investment to Alberta, all climate regulations must be “realistic.” Speaking on Tuesday, Ms. Notley pointed to Ottawa’s plan to cut and cap the oil and natural gas sector – looking to reduce the energy sector’s greenhouse gas emissions by 42 per cent by 2030 – as an example of an overly optimistic proposal.

“I was the first provincial politician to stand up and say: ‘Nope, these aren’t realistic, and they’re not going to work because they are not realistic,’” Ms. Notley said in conversation with Calgary Mayor Jyoti Gondek at a Calgary Economic Development event.

Although Ms. Smith ordered the made-in-Alberta emissions reduction plan when she became Premier last year, she left Wednesday’s announcement to Ms. Savage, a lawyer and energy industry insider who’s not running again in the May 29 election. But her stamp is all over the document.

The plan is meant to clearly stand apart from Ottawa’s goals, and what Alberta says are harmful proposed federal policies including the oil and gas emissions cap, the clean electricity regulation, and methane regulations. “These policy approaches are designed to be national in nature, but most of the impact will be felt in Alberta,” it says.

The document doesn’t mention the much criticized Just Transition/Sustainable Jobs legislation at all – showing that the federal jobs policy that raised the ire of Prairie leaders earlier this year is more important to Alberta’s political posturing than actual outcomes.

Alberta sees reducing emissions as slow and steady instead of being a big leap. With global oil demand still sitting just above 100 million barrels a day, the Alberta government argues hastily designed policies would come at significant cost owing to lost competitiveness with other oil-producing countries. As a significant producer of natural gas, Alberta argues for continued use of the fossil fuel even as the world electrifies. And unlike other climate plans, the Alberta plan speaks to the world’s newish (at least since the 1970s) concern for energy security: “Alberta energy resources can and should displace energy from less democratic global energy producers.”

Federal Environment Minster Steven Guilbeault’s office declined to comment on the Alberta plan. But Ms. Savage, speaking to the Calgary Chamber, said she told her federal counterparts about the province’s emissions plan and the net-zero by 2050 goal was “extremely well received” – but there was concern expressed over there being no interim targets.

As much as Alberta wants to stand apart with this plan, it also needs the federal government’s help – a point not lost on Ms. Savage, even as she criticized Ottawa’s policies. The oil sands sector accounts for nearly one-third of Alberta’s total greenhouse gas emissions. The Pathways Alliance, a group of six companies responsible for about 95 per cent of oil sands production, has a goal of net-zero oil production by 2050. That Pathways plan relies heavily on the idea on building one of the largest carbon capture projects in the world. And that, says the Alberta government, is going to require no small amount of federal dollars.

With a report from Carrie Tait in Calgary