NDP supporters wait for the results of the Alberta election in Edmonton on May 29, 2023.JASON FRANSON/The Canadian Press
Alberta NDP leadership hopefuls have signed up tens of thousands of new members ahead of next month’s vote to replace political heavyweight Rachel Notley, bringing the number to a historic high for the 62-year-old party.
There are now roughly 85,500 New Democratic members, more than five times the count last December, according to an NDP source with knowledge of the tally. The Globe and Mail is not naming the source because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the matter. The membership list is being scrutinized before the official number is expected to be released on Sunday.
Political scientists say the spike in new members reflects the health of the party, which currently forms the largest opposition in Alberta’s history, but that candidates must still maintain and attract votes before a new leader is crowned on June 22. Then the real challenges begin: uniting party members under one tent and broadening public support to defeat Premier Danielle Smith and her United Conservative Party.
Lisa Young, a professor of political science at the University of Calgary, said the significant hike in memberships makes it clear that the days of Alberta being a dominant-party system under conservatives are over, and that the NDP, with a new pool of supporters to volunteer and fundraise, are a real contender for provincial power.
“For what looked at the beginning like it was going to be a fairly sedate, insider kind of a competition, this really does speak to a huge influx of members and that the excitement of the race, the draw of the candidates has allowed the party to expand its membership base pretty remarkably,” Prof. Young said.
Perceived front-runner Naheed Nenshi is believed to be the driving force behind the bulk of new memberships. The former Calgary mayor made waves when he announced his candidacy in March, prompting Edmonton MLA Rakhi Pancholi to drop out of the race to endorse him after she said he more than doubled the size of the party in just one week. The NDP membership count stood at 16,224 at the end of last year.
Party mainstays Sarah Hoffman and Kathleen Ganley, both of whom served as ministers in the Notley government, have scoffed at the idea that Mr. Nenshi is a shoe-in for leader. Ms. Ganley has said membership sales for her campaign have skyrocketed, while Ms. Hoffman has stressed that signing up new party members is only one aspect of the race: persuasion is next.
The remaining two candidates, Edmonton MLA Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse and Gil McGowan, head of the Alberta Federation of Labour, are considered underdogs in the leadership race.
Prof. Young said it’s unlikely that people who have become card-carrying supporters for a specific candidate will switch allegiances. She said Mr. Nenshi will need to win on the first ballot. However, Lori Williams, an associate professor of political science at Mount Royal University, said members’ first and second choices could make the difference.
“People might choose their first choice as somebody they really can get behind and their second choice as who has the best chance of effectively challenging Danielle Smith and the UCP government. There, I think, Naheed Nenshi is going to be a strong second choice for some of those voters,” she said.
During the 2022 UCP leadership contest, it took until the sixth and final ballot for Ms. Smith to receive the majority of votes. Membership more than doubled during that race to replace Jason Kenney, reaching 123,915 from roughly 60,000.
Prof. Williams said Mr. Nenshi, although being framed by his competitors as anti-union and an NDP outsider, could appeal to a broader range of voters because of his ability to challenge Ms. Smith.
Before launching his campaign, Mr. Nenshi came out hard against Ms. Smith’s plans to restrict access to health care for transgender youth, and has run a campaign largely focused on what he opposes from the UCP instead of his own policy positions. Ms. Smith and the UCP should consider him a threat if he wins, the two political scientists said.
“This is someone he knows and someone he feels confident in his ability to effectively challenge in terms of the policies and direction, the vision for the future,” Prof. Williams said.
The second of three NDP leadership debates will take place on Saturday in Calgary.