Alberta’s population is booming! We are well on our way to doubling the number of Albertans and good things will surely follow...
Wait, check that. Apparently that’s not what we want now.
What was once touted as a sign of strength by the United Conservative government, a clear symbol that the province was the place to be, the idea of a surging populace is slowly falling out of favour as a political message.
As mentioned by The Globe’s Kelly Cryderman in her column this week, Premier Danielle Smith has backed away from her argument that all population growth is good. For several months toward the end of last year and the beginning of 2024, Smith made several statements about how if the province’s population could double to 10 million before 2050 it would be a boon for the economy. But that talking point is no longer on the agenda.
As the Premier herself has recently discussed, she’s spent the summer at UCP town halls where, as Kelly wrote. Smith is “hearing increased concern that the thousands of new people moving to the province each month are putting a strain on housing and services.”
Even the most recent fiscal update, released late last month, paints a stark picture of what the enormous population growth means for the province.
“The rapid and unexpected growth in population has added pressures on government programs and services. Alberta’s economic growth is expected to pick up this year but will lag behind the exceptional increase in the province’s population,” the fiscal update document reads.
The population grew by 200,000 people, or 4.4 per cent, in the first quarter compared to a year ago. That is the first quarter’s highest annual growth rate since 1981 and the fastest among all provinces. And nobody was prepared for those numbers.
It could mean financial trouble for Alberta. With the government predicting that economic growth will not keep pace with population growth, that will put a significant strain on schools, hospitals, transit and housing.
And with troubled finances could come political trouble, at a time when the Premier is staring down a fall UCP leadership review.
A leadership review, coming on the first weekend in November, is held at one out of every three party AGMs in a non-election year. According to party rules, getting less than 50-per-cent support triggers a leadership race. But, as Kelly says “in reality, a conservative premier wants to get well above 70 – or better yet, 80 – per cent.”
The Premier has already stepped up her efforts to shore up support.
The government recently locked horns with Calgary over the Green Line transit project, the so-called “Nenshi Nightmare” which has become a real political football. While it’s yet to be seen how the fight will affect the UCP’s chances to win over Alberta’s biggest city, it is likely a winner with the rural party base on which Smith’s leadership hangs.
And we’re likely to hear lots more this fall ahead of the leadership vote about coming legislation and plans.
The UCP’s controversial sex-ed, pronoun and transgender policies are likely to be unveiled as will details on the promised amendments to the Alberta Bill of Rights. And with Smith promising last month that there will be a review of the province’s finances, expect lots of change.
So while population growth might not be the focus of most Albertans, it’s likely to play a big part in government decision-making.
This is the weekly Alberta newsletter written by Alberta Bureau Chief Mark Iype. If you’re reading this on the web, or it was forwarded to you from someone else, you can sign up for it and all Globe newsletters here.