Alberta election marked by close calls in Calgary

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Results from Alberta’s general election trickled in late into the night after a slow start on Monday, revealing a number of extraordinarily close races in several Calgary ridings, two of which are now subject to an automatic recount because of razor-thin margins favouring New Democratic Party candidates.

Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party managed to retain enough seats in Calgary to hold onto power in Monday’s election but lost a significant amount of representation in the urban centre. Unofficial results show the NDP triumphed in 14 of the city’s 26 ridings, leaving the UCP with 12 seats from 23 in the 2019 election.

A recount is triggered by Elections Alberta when fewer than 100 votes separate two candidates. The two ridings in question won’t change the majority status of the UCP, having secured at least 49 of the province’s 87 seats. But if the results stand, the UCP will lose two of its more moderate members, inching the party even further to the right.

Recounts will be certified by June 8.

Only seven votes separate NDP candidate Diana Batten, a registered nurse and educator, and former justice minister Tyler Shandro in Calgary-Acadia. Unseating the high-ranking UCP member would be a significant victory for the NDP. He served as health minister during the height of the COVID-19 crisis under former premier Jason Kenney before being shuffled to the justice portfolio, which he held onto when Ms. Smith became premier last October.

Calgary-Glenmore is also being scrutinized with just 30 votes putting NDP candidate Nagwan Al-Guneid ahead of UCP incumbent Whitney Issik. Ms. Issik was booted from cabinet under Ms. Smith but served as the minister of environment and parks and associate minister of status of women when Mr. Kenney was at the helm.

A number of other ridings recorded slim victories, but the margins were not small enough to trigger a recount. However, once the official count is complete, candidates will have eight days to make an application to the court for a judicial tally, said Robyn Bell, a spokesperson for Elections Alberta.

“All electoral divisions, regardless of how close they are, will have a review take place,” she added. “It’s a review of the statement of votes, all of the rejected ballots and all of the ballots that a scrutineer may have objected to. Whereas when it’s an automatic count, they’re doing a full recount of all ballots, election day mobile voting, special ballots and tabulators as well.”

In 2019, a ballot recount confirmed UCP candidate Devinder Toor received the most votes in Calgary-Falconridge but by a slightly slimmer margin – five fewer than originally recorded.

A record 755,840 advance votes were cast this election but did not lead to an all-time high for voter turnout. About 62 per cent of eligible electors went to the polls, compared with 67.5 per cent in 2019, which was the highest in the province since 1971. Elections Alberta said 745 ballots were declined and another 8,138 were rejected.

Lori Turnbull, a political scientist from Dalhousie University, said some conservatives sitting out the election over Ms. Smith’s politics could have stamped out higher voting numbers. She pointed to the leader’s polarizing views on the province’s relationship with Ottawa and an ethics report that concluded she had interfered with the administration of justice as premier.

Ms. Smith also flirts with the fringe characters in the conservative movement, namely those supported by Take Back Alberta, a faction representing libertarians and social conservatives. She vocally supported the illegal blockade in Coutts, Alta., in the winter of 2022 and compared people who got vaccinated against COVID-19 to Nazi sympathizers.

“There was a hesitancy around a Danielle Smith vote in the way that there was not a hesitancy around a Rachel Notley vote,” Prof. Turnbull said. She said people might have also been disinterested in voting because both leaders focused on maligning the other, rather than trying to sell voters on their policy platforms.

“When you convince somebody that this person they’re going to vote for is not a good person, they’re not going to then come to you. They’re just going to not vote,” she said, adding that vote switching is unlikely because the parties differ greatly.

Ms. Bell said the initial delay in election results was because some voting locations had to remain open later to accommodate lineups. She also reiterated that there was no issue with the tabulators, but said it takes time to ensure accuracy.

This was the first year that returning offices were responsible for advance-voting ballots, which were previously transported to Elections Alberta headquarters, causing a three-day delay in 2019.

“Ultimately, it’s prioritizing the accuracy of the results over the speed of reporting,” Ms. Bell said.