Alberta 2023 election: Danielle Smith’s UCP wins majority

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12:00 a.m.

Danielle Smith makes victory speech

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says it’s time to put personal and political attacks in the “rear-view mirror.”

Her United Conservative Party has won a majority in the provincial election.

Ms. Smith was also re-elected in her constituency of Brooks-Medicine Hat.

In her victory speech, she took aim at Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Ms. Smith says Ottawa is planning to bring in new restrictions on electricity generation from natural gas that she says would increase power bills and endanger the reliability of the power grid.

– The Canadian Press

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11:30 p.m.

Rachel Notley to stay on as NDP leader and official Opposition

At the NDP’s election headquarters in Edmonton, it was a loss that felt like a victory.

Rachel Notley appeared in the ballroom around 11:30, after an introduction by newly elected MLA Jodi Calahoo-Stonehouse, who called the NDP Leader “a beacon of hope.”

Ms. Notley arriving to thunderous cheers and applause from the crowd of supporters, some waving orange signs, or dressed in “Notley Crue” paraphernalia. She stood on stage, her family behind her, and addressed the crowd.

“Obviously tonight I come before you with mixed emotions. On one hand, I feel tremendous gratitude and pride in the people of Alberta. Those who have stood up and put their support behind building a better future,” she said. “However, tonight I also know that we are all very deeply disappointed in the overall result. We had all hoped for a different one.”

Throughout the speech, people in the room chanted “NDP! NDP!” and “Rachel! Rachel!”

Ms. Notley says she has conceded the provincial election to United Conservative Leader Danielle Smith.

She says support has grown for the NDP with at least 10 more members in the legislature than the last election.

Ms. Notley says she will continue to be the leader of the NDP and official Opposition.

– Jana Pruden and The Canadian Press

11:28 p.m.

Gary Mason: UCP wins despite Danielle Smith’s leadership

It looks like the UCP is going to hang on to power, which tells you much more about the pull of conservatism in Alberta than it does the leadership of Danielle Smith.

The party won despite her.

The party will be returned with a reduced majority, which is an indictment of Ms. Smith’s leadership.

It will almost certainly spark speculation about Ms. Smith’s future as leader. Will there be a move to oust her in favour of someone less mercurial and controversy prone? That could certainly happen but it’s doubtful to occur anytime soon. She may be put on a short leash by her party and caucus, but she will be given a chance to demonstrate she can lead without the day to day melodramas and contretemps that marked her seven months in office. We shall see how that goes. There is that old saying about a tiger never changing her stripes.

This result will also surely spell the end of Rachel Notley’s reign as NDP leader. She will almost certainly resign but not likely immediately. She will go down as the greatest leader in the party’s history – a gallery that includes her father Grant.

In some ways Monday’s result is not a great surprise. In others, it’s a shocking decision by the electorate.Alberta has the most interesting politics in Canada. By a long shot.

– Columnist Gary Mason

11:28 p.m.

Kelly Cryderman: How will Ms. Smith govern?

Even with the win, the question Albertans are likely to ask as they wake up Tuesday morning is what kind of premier will Ms. Smith be, as she takes the lead beyond the seven months she has already governed? Is she the media personality, backed by the most right-wing elements in Alberta politics, who supported the illegal blockade in Coutts and used comparisons with the Nazis to describe Canada’s pandemic response? Or will the Premier be the more mainstream conservative version of herself presented during the election campaign?

Ms. Smith was a self-described social pariah after her disastrous 2014 floor-crossing to Jim Prentice’s Progressive Conservatives, when she was still leader of the upstart Wildrose party. It left her in the political wilderness for seven years. She made her way back into politics in part by becoming the province’s chief vaccine skeptic.

Another question is whether Monday’s win will bring a measure of stability to the province’s political scene, one that has been marked by internal conservative clashes and a long list of premiers who’ve been turfed. Since Ralph Klein left office in 2006, Alberta has cycled through seven premiers.

Kelly Cryderman: Danielle Smith wins over Albertans, but governing a divided province won’t be easy

11:05 p.m.

Danielle Smith’s UCP wins Alberta election

Danielle Smith and the United Conservative Party won a majority victory in Alberta’s election Monday, the culmination of a polarizing campaign that will leave her in charge of a diminished caucus and a province sharply divided between rural and urban communities.

The election result means Alberta will continue its fractious relationship with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose government has faced attacks from Ms. Smith over Ottawa’s approach to climate change and the oil sector.

Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party wins majority government in Alberta

As of 11 p.m., the UCP were elected or leading in 52 seats and the NDP were leading or elected in 35.

The election was an unusually close race in a province where conservative parties have long held power. The lone recent exception was Ms. Notley’s victory in 2015, but that was against two conservative parties that split the right-wing vote.

– Globe staff

10:40 p.m.

‘This is sending a message to Alberta,’ says former Conservative staffer

Is political complacency dead in Alberta?

Absolutely, said Michael Solberg, a partner at New West Public Affairs and former Conservative Party government staffer in Ottawa. “At least for a generation or two, perhaps forever,” he said. “I think it’s clear that the dynasties are over.”

For 44 years, Progressive Conservatives ruled Alberta, before they lost power to the NDP in 2015 in an orange win that sent shockwaves across Prairie politics. The newly formed UCP wrested power from the NDP in 2019, but 2023 “is the closest race in 100 years,” Mr. Solberg told The Globe at UCP election headquarters in Calgary.

“It is clear that no party is going to have an institutional and historical advantage for generations like we saw with the PCs, and that includes the Conservative movement here,” Mr. Solberg said.

“It’s insanely close, and there has been little to zero polling consensus on how this was going to play out until the last five to seven days. The general consensus is that the UCP will win tonight, but it’s close enough that a polling error within the margin of error could flip the vote entirely.”

Two hours after the polls closed, the mood among the UCP supporters seated behind Mr. Solberg in the Big Four building remained subdued.

“This is a competitive race. This is sending a message to Alberta. This is sending a message to the UCP. This is sending a message to all of the nation on how close this race is,” he said. “We don’t know how this is going to finish.”

– Emma Graney

10:20 p.m.

Alberta election result ‘spells a massive shift’ for Alberta, former deputy premier says

Checking results on his phone in a hallway outside the NDP election night headquarters in Edmonton, former Progressive Conservative cabinet minister and deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk described the outcome of the election as “existential.”

“This election spells a massive shift, not only in politics, but in how we see ourselves, how the world sees us, how the rest of Canada sees us,” said Mr. Lukaszuk, who has been a vocal supporter of the NDP in this election. “I worry about that image, because if we want to attract and retain young skilled people, if we want to retain the ones that we educate in this province, the UCP – and Danielle Smith in particular – does not foster the kind of an environment into which you can attract progressive, innovative thinkers.”

Mr. Lukaszuk ran in five provincial elections, and won his seat four times before losing it to the NDP in 2015. But while campaigning for himself was personal, he said the stakes of this election felt different.

“I probably campaigned in the last few weeks harder than I ever campaigned for myself,” he said.

– Jana Pruden

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9:55 p.m.

Rachel Notley re-elected in Edmonton-Strathcona

Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley has been re-elected as the legislature member for Edmonton-Strathcona.

Ms. Notley rode the “orange wave” to victory in 2015, toppling the Progressive Conservatives after 44 years in power in Alberta.

Her 2015 win was aided by vote splitting between the governing Progressive Conservatives and the Opposition Wildrose Party.

The PCs and Wildrose joined forces to create the United Conservative Party in 2017 and under Jason Kenney captured a majority in 2019.

– The Canadian Press

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9:36 p.m

Danielle Smith re-elected in her riding as UCP takes early lead

Cheers at UCP headquarters in Calgary as screens show Danielle Smith garnering more than 75 per cent of the vote in her riding of Brooks-Medicine Hat. The lead was enough to make Ms. Smith the first candidate declared elected.

She won the seat in a byelection in November, more than seven years after she left the Alberta legislature.

Ms. Smith called the byelection shortly after she won the leadership race to replace Jason Kenney as United Conservative Party leader and premier in October.

Results trickled in unusually slowly, with about 245,000 ballots counted nearly two hours after polls closed, though Elections Alberta said the count was proceeding normally.

The UCP had an early lead but many ridings had just a handful of votes reported.

– The Canadian Press

9:30 p.m.

Both parties ‘are being held accountable’ this election: UCP supporter

UCP supporters continue to file into election night headquarters here in Calgary, throwing cheers and boos at the giant screen projecting TV coverage as the results trickle in.

It’s still early in the night, but United Conservatives say that the room has a completely different vibe than at this point during the 2019 election.

Take Erika Barootes, a long-time Alberta conservative political operative, who this time around headed up issues management in the UCP’s election war room. She put the mood down to the entirely different political reality that faced Albertans this time around.

“Last time it was jobs, economy, and it was about voting out the NDP because people were so frustrated with their disastrous record,” she said. While jobs and the economy featured prominently in this election, too, affordability and public safety also crept into the zeitgeist.

“We’re in Calgary, we’ll talk battleground Calgary. That is what we hear at the doors every single day: ‘How do I have an affordable life and be able to manage the cost of living and manage my family’s budget, as well as public safety? How do I take my kids downtown on public transit?’”

In the last election, the UCP was a “shiny new object that was like a knight in shining armour to the NDP’s record,” she said, and “people were voting out the NDP.” But this time, both parties “are being held accountable for what they did as both premiers and as party governments.”

For the UCP, this time an election win is far from guaranteed – hence the vastly different vibe from 2019 at UCP election night headquarters. The outcome of this year’s vote has been “operating in the margin of error this entire time,” Ms. Barootes said. “But I think what people sometimes forget is six or eight months ago, how far behind the UCP was in the polls … so it’s actually quite impressive to get to this head-to-head battle.”

– Emma Graney

9:30 p.m.

Elections Alberta says it is ‘not experiencing any issues’ counting votes

More than an hour after polls closed, votes are being reported at a much slower pace than expected. Around 750,000 Albertans voted in early polls, and those totals are expected to be posted almost immediately. Like in 2019, Elections Alberta used electronic tabulators to count ballots at advance voting stations. But hand counts are being used for all special ballot, election day, and mobile voting locations.

“We are not experiencing any issues. It does take time,” Michelle Gurney, a spokesperson for Elections Alberta, said in an e-mailed statement. She said a verification process is required with the electronic tabulators before the data can be entered.

– Globe staff

9:25 p.m.

Former conservative supporter on why he voted NDP

Michael Sisson, one of about 200 supporters at NDP headquarters, said news that UCP leader Danielle Smith was considering changes to Alberta’s pension plan was the “final straw” for him. He voted for the conservatives in the last election, but is now proudly behind the NDP. He was wearing a bright orange shirt.

“Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, shame on them,” he said.

Mr. Sisson said there were a handful of other things that influenced his vote. Those included the de-indexing of disability funding under former premier Jason Kenney and fears about what would happen to the health system if the UCP were re-elected. He said the outcome of this year’s election will affect his livelihood.

“I can’t take out my debit card to pay for a doctor. I can barely afford food,” he said.

“There’s a lot at stake.”

– Alanna Smith

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9:00 p.m.

NDP supporter ‘a little bit stressed, a little bit positive’ on election night

“A little bit stressed, a little bit positive, but also a little bit confused by the polls that have been coming in,” said NDP supporter Swetha Prakash, describing her mood as she watched results roll in at NDP headquarters in Edmonton. She said she’s particularly concerned about the future of health care should the UCP win, a prospect that she described as “terrifying at best.”

Her father, Prakash Swaminathan, cited concerns about health care, education and pensions, but said he is also concerned by what he describes as “an apparent lack of ethics” in Ms. Smith’s government.

“I’m very concerned about the influence of organizations like Take Back Alberta, indicative of the negative kind of politics that seep up into our country from our cousins south of the border,” said Mr. Swaminathan, who has been volunteering for the NDP.

”We’ve done our part to vote, and now a fair and free democratic process will play out,” he said.

– Jana Pruden

9:01 p.m.

Gary Mason: If Danielle Smith wins, it’ll be because of the economy

While it is very, very early, I think if Danielle Smith and the UCP win this election it will be because of one primary issue: the economy.

Ms. Smith had an advantage going into this election that NDP Leader Rachel Notley could only dream of when her party was in power from 2015-19 – when oil prices plummeted, and the Alberta economy went into the tank. Even though oil prices were something beyond the NDP’s control, it didn’t matter: The UCP under then-leader Jason Kenney made Ms. Notley pay the price in the 2019 election, primarily for the massive debt the NDP racked up during its time in office.

This was a particularly dark chapter in the province’s history, when Albertans had to contemplate provincial arrears reaching $100-billion-plus. In this election, reaching back to that time was one of Ms. Smith’s strongest selling points. Nuance has no place in election campaigns, so the NDP had little hope of trying to put their plight while in government in some sort of perspective.

Ms. Smith had a particularly strong showing during the one and only leaders’ debate focusing on the NDP’s economic record – the most glaring weakness in the party’s armour.

While it is grossly unfair, the NDP across the country is often associated with poor economic management and nowhere is the party more vulnerable to this charge than in Alberta.

– Columnist Gary Mason

8:50 p.m.

The results are trickling in slowly

About 45 minutes after polls closed, a few ridings had zero ballots counted and many more had just a handful.

8:45 p.m.

Voters at NDP headquarters reflect on Alberta election

For some in the room at NDP headquarters tonight in Edmonton, such as Guy Desforges, the election was about far more than governance.

“There’s a lot of people we’ve talked to that say if Danielle Smith was to win, there’s a good chance they’re leaving the province because they don’t want to be part of this,” Mr. Desforges said, as very early results began appearing on two large video screens.

He pointed to both pensions and privatization as issues of significant concern for him.

“As a society, I hope we don’t go down that path,” he said. “That’s what worries me the most.”

– Jana Pruden

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8:15 p.m.

‘Cautious confidence’ at NDP’s election-night headquarters

At the NDP’s election-night headquarters in Edmonton, it was a mood of “cautious confidence” as polls closed Monday evening. In adjoining Westin hotel ballrooms, Girls Just Want To Have Fun and Walking on Sunshine played while party supporters and campaign workers began to trickle in. NDP Leader Rachel Notley will be attending later. In Calgary, meanwhile. NDP candidates and supporters are beginning to fill The Palace Theatre in Calgary as polls close.

The downtown event space, illuminated by orange lights, has supporters holding signs that say “A better future for Alberta.” Calgary is considered the key battleground in this election.

– Jana Pruden and Alanna Smith

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8:15 p.m.

United Conservatives begin to gather

The United Conservatives are meeting at the Big Four space on the Calgary Stampede grounds – the same location where party supporters celebrated their victory in the 2019 election.

As polls close in Alberta, only a few dozen people have trickled into the space. A few are carrying “cut taxes” signs, some are wearing t-shirts from Take Back Alberta, a group that has attracted libertarians and religious social conservatives on the party’s right flank.

It’s a more subdued crowd than the one that descended on the site just before the polls closed in the last provincial election. That one was (correctly) forecast to be a landslide win for the newly formed UCP, headed by then-leader Jason Kenney.

– Emma Graney

8:00 p.m.

Polls close in expected nail-biter between UCP, NDP

Polls have closed in Alberta in an election expected to be a nail-biter finish between the United Conservative Party and the NDP.

Both the UCP’s Danielle Smith and the NDP’s Rachel Notley have been premier and leaders of the official Opposition.

Advance polls suggest voter turnout will be heavy.

– The Canadian Press

7:50 p.m.

Key ridings to watch

The 2023 election does not have a bellwether riding. Instead, there are clusters of communities that will determine who forms government.

The NDP needs to pick up wins in the suburban ridings surrounding Edmonton, Banff-Kananaskis, Lethbridge and swaths of Calgary. The Alberta Party, which siphoned away centrist votes in 2019 and 2015, is not as strong as it was in previous elections but could still eat into the NDP’s ballot tally.

The UCP, meanwhile, has a lock on rural Alberta and needs to avoid a complete collapse in the province’s largest city, which has a handful of ridings that have never elected an NDP candidate. Should the UCP hold on to power, its Calgary caucus will have fewer moderate and progressive voices than ever before.

Five key ridings to watch

ahead of the election

INSIDE CALGARY

1

2

3

OUTSIDE CALGARY

4

Edmonton

Calgary

5

2019 provincial election results

Voter turnout

NDP

UCP

Others

Five key ridings to watch ahead of the election

INSIDE CALGARY

1

2

3

OUTSIDE CALGARY

4

Edmonton

Calgary

5

2019 provincial election results

Voter turnout

NDP

UCP

Others

Five key ridings to watch ahead of the election

INSIDE CALGARY

OUTSIDE CALGARY

4

1

Edmonton

2

3

Calgary

5

2019 provincial election results

Voter turnout

UCP

NDP

Others

Five key ridings to watch tonight:

• Calgary-Varsity
• Calgary-Elbow
• Calgary-Acadia
• Edmonton-South West
• Lethbridge-East

— Carrie Tait

8:40 p.m.

What the UCP and NDP say about energy policy

For both the UCP and the NDP, fossil fuels continue to feature in Alberta’s fiscal future – albeit to varying degrees, and accompanied by a recognition from both parties that the energy economy must also diversify into alternative, lower-emitting fuels.

The UCP platform contains no new promises when it comes to the province’s most important sector. Instead, the party points to its actions while in government, including saving money by transferring Alberta’s crude-by-rail program to the private sector, developing a road map for a hydrogen economy, and appointing an advisory panel to come up with a long-term vision for the province’s energy future.

The NDP’s platform includes policies to expand the petrochemical sector, reduce energy project wait times and repeal the Sovereignty Act, introduced under UCP Leader Danielle Smith, who claimed it would allow the province to ignore some federal laws. The NDP argues that the act is anti-Canadian and repels investment in Alberta. The NDP, under leader Rachel Notley, also says it would not introduce a provincial retail carbon tax.

Breaking down UCP and NDP energy policies in Alberta

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7:15 p.m.

Key economic platform pledges

United Conservative Party

Ms. Smith has promised to reduce personal income taxes by $760 a year for people making more than $60,000 annually, a measure she says would shave off about $1-billion in government revenue. The UCP would also extend the provincial fuel tax holiday to the end of 2023.

To help boost job growth and diversification, Ms. Smith pledged to introduce a non-refundable tax credit of between $3,000 and $10,000 for graduates who stay in Alberta, estimated to cost $50-million over four years. Additionally, her party will provide a $1,200 signing bonus for certain skilled workers as part of the Alberta is Calling campaign, forecast to cost $17-million yearly.

NDP

Ms. Notley has promised to not raise income taxes for four years and to freeze insurance rates. The NDP is adopting recommendations from an economist to use fixed formulas and rules to keep future spending in check while committing more money to long-term savings.

6:40 p.m.

Gary Mason: What’s at stake in Alberta’s election

There always seems to be a little more at stake for Canada in the results of provincial elections in Alberta and today’s is no different.

Alberta has, for decades, been an economic powerhouse and as such has punched above its population-size weight.

The ramifications of this election for the country are even more profound given the political proclivities of Danielle Smith, Leader of the United Conservative Party. Most polls have predicted the UCP will win, with a radically reduced majority. That would put Ms. Smith back in the premier’s chair, one she enjoyed for seven months before the election was called.

In that brief time, she become associated with one controversy after another. But she also made Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a regular target.

She has promised to look at having Alberta opt out of the national pension plan, in favour of one she’d like to explore creating in the province. She is mulling giving the RCMP the boot and setting up a provincial police force. She’s talked about taking over immigration policy and threatened to use her so-called sovereignty act to usurp federal powers she believes are rightly the province’s. She has said she won’t abide by the federal government’s climate-change targets.

In other words, there is a long list of possible political flashpoints in the days and months ahead between Alberta and Ottawa if the UCP get re-elected.

Never have the words “buckle your seatbelts” seemed more apt.

— Gary Mason

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6:00 p.m.

Meet the party leaders: Danielle Smith and Rachel Notley

Danielle Smith, 52, is the former Wildrose Party leader who spent years as a talk-radio host before her political comeback in 2022. Ms. Smith became leader of the UCP after former premier Jason Kenney stepped down last spring over backlash from his caucus over COVID-19 restrictions. Ms. Smith was elected leader of the UCP in October, beating out six other candidates.

Rachel Notley, 59, ended a 43-year Progressive Conservative hold on power when she was elected premier in 2015. In this election, Ms. Notley is battling concerns about her last tenure, when spending and tax increases during low oil prices led to multibillion-dollar budget deficits and soaring taxpayer-supported debt.

3:20 p.m.

Results to be delayed in one riding

Results in the rural riding of Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre will be delayed, because one polling station will remain open later than initially planned, Elections Alberta said Monday afternoon. That station, at the Sunchild Administration Building, will be open until 9:46 p.m., to make up for delays in opening Monday morning. Votes will not be counted in the riding until all polls are closed.

There have also been changes to voting procedures this election as a result of wildfires across the province. Alternate voting locations have been set up for 13 polling stations. There are currently 3,501 evacuees across five communities, according to the province. Elections Alberta has provided them with opportunities to vote near the places where they are taking shelter.

Mobile voting stations were available in evacuation reception centres last week in eight different locations. Special ballot packages were also made available to first responders fighting the wildfires.

– Dustin Cook with files from The Canadian Press

2:30 p.m.

Alberta’s 2023 provincial election is here

Election day looms in Alberta after a heated contest between the UCP’s Danielle Smith and the NDP’s Rachel Notley where leadership became the dominant issue, rising above policy debates.

Tens of thousands of eligible voters are expected to cast their ballot on Monday, after a surge in advance voting that has put the province on course for a record voter turnout. A total 758,550 ballots were cast over five days, from May 23 to May 27, exceeding early voter counts in the past election.

In 2019, 67.5 per cent of voters went to the polls – the highest in the province since 1971. There are nearly 2,785,000 eligible electors this year.

Voting locations close at 8 p.m. on Monday, shutting the door on a 28-day campaign that pinned the United Conservative Party against the New Democratic Party. And while the UCP appears to have a slight advantage, pollsters and politicos say it’s either party’s election to win.

Election day in Alberta after heated campaign between Danielle Smith, Rachel Notley

– Alanna Smith

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How to vote in Alberta’s 2023 election

Who can vote?

Anyone who is 18 years or older, a Canadian citizen and a resident of Alberta is eligible to vote in the 2023 provincial election.

How do I vote?

Alberta residents can vote in person on election day (Monday, May 29) from 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. at their assigned polling station, based on the location of their residential address.

How do I register to vote?

Albertans can register to vote online through Elections Alberta’s website until May 17 or they may register by phone until 4 p.m. MT on May 20. They can also register in person at their local returning office between May 2 and 20, or by visiting any advance or election day voting locations.

What do I need to bring to the polling station?

To vote, you must prove your identity and current address. Acceptable ID includes a piece of government-issued photo ID, including your full name, current address, and photo, or two pieces of ID, both containing your full name, and with one showing your current physical address. If you don’t have an ID, another registered elector in your voting area can vouch for you.