Alberta’s political map is divided into 87 constituencies and the province’s two main parties have created an incredibly tight contest. The incumbent United Conservative Party, however, faces fewer hurdles than the New Democratic Party. The UCP is expected to clean up in rural communities and smaller cities such as Grande Prairie, the NDP is gunning for all 20 seats in Edmonton, while Calgary is the election’s big prize. There are 26 ridings in the city and the UCP carried 23 of them in the past election. A number of ministers are fighting for their jobs and voters are expected to send a handful of experienced UCP politicians in Calgary packing.
The 2023 election does not have a bellwether riding. Instead, there are clusters of communities that will determine who forms government. The NDP needs to pick up wins in the suburban ridings surrounding Edmonton, Banff-Kananaskis, Lethbridge and swaths of Calgary. The Alberta Party, which siphoned away centrist votes in 2019 and 2015, is not as strong as it was in previous elections but could still eat into the NDP’s ballot tally.
The UCP, meanwhile, has a lock on rural Alberta and needs to avoid a complete collapse in the province’s largest city, which has a handful of ridings that have never elected an NDP candidate. Should the UCP hold on to power, its Calgary caucus will have fewer moderate and progressive voices than ever before.
Five key ridings to watch
ahead of the election
INSIDE CALGARY
1
2
3
OUTSIDE CALGARY
4
Edmonton
Calgary
5
2019 provincial election results
Voter turnout
NDP
UCP
Others
Five key ridings to watch ahead of the election
INSIDE CALGARY
1
2
3
OUTSIDE CALGARY
4
Edmonton
Calgary
5
2019 provincial election results
Voter turnout
NDP
UCP
Others
Five key ridings to watch ahead of the election
INSIDE CALGARY
OUTSIDE CALGARY
4
1
Edmonton
2
3
Calgary
5
2019 provincial election results
Voter turnout
UCP
NDP
Others
1. Calgary-Varsity
73.2
46.2%
43.4%
10.4%
73.2
46.2%
43.4%
10.4%
43.4%
46.2%
10.4%
73.2
Jason Copping won this riding for the UCP in 2019 after besting the NDP candidate by 638 votes and benefiting from the Alberta Party snagging a slice of the centre. The NDP won the seat in 2015, with 43.9 per cent of the vote, compared with the combined Progressive Conservative and Wildrose Party total of 44 per cent. Pollsters favour the NDP in this contest, meaning the Health Minister, under both Ms. Smith and Mr. Kenney, could be on his way out. While the UCP and health care workers clashed bitterly during the pandemic, Mr. Copping is respected as a competent and capable steward of the system.
2. Calgary-Elbow
71.7%
44.3%
23.5%
32.2%
71.7%
44.3%
23.5%
32.2%
44.3%
32.2%
23.5%
71.7%
This is Red Tory territory. The UCP won Calgary-Elbow in 2019 with 44.3-per-cent support after the NDP and Alberta Party split the vote, but the seat has been empty since Doug Schweitzer resigned last summer. Alison Redford, the former Progressive Conservative premier, previously represented Calgary-Elbow, and the Alberta Party won the seat in the 2015 election. This year, the rookie UCP candidate, Chris Davis, is trying to distance himself from his party’s right flank, while the NDP’s Samir Kayande, a former energy analyst, is fending off accusations he opposes the province’s hydrocarbon industry. Meanwhile, the Alberta Party once again has a candidate in the race, which could be to the UCP’s benefit.
3. Calgary-Acadia
67.5%
54.3%
34.6%
11%
67.5%
54.3%
34.6%
11%
54.3%
34.6%
11%
67.5%
Tyler Shandro, the UCP incumbent in Calgary-Acadia, served as Justice Minister under Ms. Smith and her predecessor, Jason Kenney; and health minister during the height of the COVID-19 crisis. Should the UCP form government, and Mr. Shandro return to the legislature, he will represent moderate conservatives in a party that is listing further to the right. If the NDP unseats him, it will be a considered a significant victory, even if the party falls short of bumping the UCP from government benches. History favours Mr. Shandro: The NDP picked up Calgary-Acadia in 2015 with just 34.7 per cent of the vote, while the Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose Party raked in a combined 60.4 per cent.
4. Edmonton-South West
70%
45%
41.8%
13.2%
70%
45%
41.8%
13.2%
41.8%
45%
13.2%
70%
If the NDP wins Edmonton-South West, it will almost certainly sweep the province’s capital, home to 20 constituencies. Kaycee Madu won the riding for the UCP in 2019, capturing 45 per cent of the vote. The NDP accounted for 41.8 per cent, while the Alberta Party received 11.7 per cent. Edmonton-South West was the only constituency the UCP claimed in the city and it will be difficult for Mr. Madu, one of Ms. Smith’s two deputy premiers, to retain support this year.
5. Lethbridge-East
66.8%
52.4%
38.7%
8.9%
MURAT YÜKSELIR / THE GLOBE AND MAIL,
SOURCE: ELECTIONS ALBERTA
66.8%
52.4%
38.7%
8.9%
MURAT YÜKSELIR / THE GLOBE AND MAIL,
SOURCE: ELECTIONS ALBERTA
52.4%
38.7%
8.9%
66.8%
MURAT YÜKSELIR / THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: ELECTIONS ALBERTA
Alberta’s competing political camps – rural conservatives and urban progressives – are both at home in Lethbridge. Alberta’s fourth-largest city is divided into two ridings, with each party controlling one seat. The two ridings are often clumped in Alberta’s “rural” bucket, but the NDP won them both in 2015, besting the combined results of the Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose Party in both constituencies. Nathan Neudorf captured Lethbridge-East for the UCP in 2019 and serves as Ms. Smith’s other deputy premier. He carried the riding with 52.4 per cent of the vote in the past election.
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