The Bank of Japan headquarters, in Tokyo, on Aug. 18, 2023.Shuji Kajiyama/The Associated Press
Japan’s central bank has scope to raise interest rates further but must move cautiously and slowly to avoid hurting the economy, a dovish policy-maker said on Thursday, reinforcing market views it will be in no rush to lift borrowing costs.
The comments from Bank of Japan board member Asahi Noguchi come a day after Japan’s new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, said the economy was not ready for further rate hikes, in surprisingly blunt remarks that pushed the yen lower.
Noguchi said the yen’s recent rally from “one-sided,” sharp falls seen in July has moderated inflationary pressure from import costs, allowing the BOJ time to scrutinize economic risks in determining when next to hike rates.
“If economic and price developments move in line with our forecasts, we will adjust the degree of monetary support albeit at a slow pace,” Noguchi told a news conference, adding the bank must make the decision “with extreme caution.”
“As it’s hard to come up with a concrete estimate on Japan’s neutral rate, we need to pause after hiking once to scrutinize the impact before raising rates again,” he said, adding the timing and pace of the policy shifts will be data dependent.
Noguchi declined to comment on Ishiba’s remarks but said the BOJ needed to take into account that various political views reflected public sentiment, even as it sets policy independently.
The dollar scaled a more than six-week high versus the yen on Thursday, due in part to receding expectations of a near-term rate hike by the BOJ. It briefly hit 147.25 yen, the highest since Aug. 20, before retracing some gains to stand at 146.80 yen.
Later on Thursday, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, newly appointed finance minister Katsunobu Kato and economy minister Ryosei Akazawa met in Tokyo and reaffirmed that they would closely co-ordinate efforts to exit deflation.
“We reaffirmed that we would make sure to exit deflation and achieve growth sustainably with the government and the BOJ working closely in line with a joint statement,” Kato told reporters, referring to a 2013 statement that commits the central bank to achieve its 2 per cent inflation target.
A majority of economists polled by Reuters on Sept. 4-12 had expected the BOJ to raise rates again by year-end.
In a speech delivered earlier on Thursday to business leaders in the southern Japanese city of Nagasaki, Noguchi said the BOJ must patiently maintain loose monetary policy.
With inflation exceeding the BOJ’s 2 per cent target for more than two years and wages rising, Japanese firms are becoming more willing to pass on higher costs through price hikes, he said.
But sluggish real consumption suggests households still believe prices won’t rise much, having experienced decades of deflation and stagnant wage growth, said Noguchi, who voted against the BOJ’s decision to raise rates in July.
“It will take considerable time for such sentiment to dampen, and for society as a whole to shift to a mindset consistent with the BOJ’s 2 per cent inflation target,” Noguchi said. “Till then, what’s most important is for the BOJ to patiently maintain an accommodative monetary environment,” he said.
The BOJ ended negative rates in March and raised short-term borrowing costs to 0.25 per cent in July on the view Japan was making progress towards sustaining 2 per cent inflation.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda was forced to walk back his remarks, made when rates were hiked in July, that the bank would keep raising borrowing costs after the hawkish tone triggered a market rout.
Speaking after a meeting with Ishiba on Wednesday, Ueda said he told the premier that the BOJ would move cautiously in deciding whether to raise interest rates further.
Japan’s economy expanded by an annualized 2.9 per cent rate in the second quarter as steady wage hikes underpinned consumer spending. Capital expenditure continues to grow, though soft demand in China and slowing U.S. growth cloud the outlook for the export-reliant country.