The OECD headquarters, in Paris, on Sept. 3, 2009.Charles Platiau/Reuters
Global economic growth will pick up only moderately over the next year as the full effects of central bank rate hikes are felt, the OECD said on Wednesday, the latest to flag the impact of monetary tightening.
The world economy is set to grow 2.7 per cent this year, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said, up from its previous forecast of 2.6 per cent in March.
Though boosted by the lifting of China’s zero-COVID policy, that would be the lowest annual rate since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis with the exception of the pandemic-hit year of 2020, the Paris-based organization said.
Growth would then accelerate only slightly next year to 2.9 per cent – unchanged from March’s forecast – as rate hikes by major central banks over the last year increasingly drag on private investment, starting with housing markets.
On Tuesday, the World Bank also cited the growing impact of rate hikes as it raised its forecast for world growth this year to 2.1 per cent but for 2024 cut it back to 2.4 per cent from a previous 2.7 per cent forecast. A sharp fall in May for Chinese exports released on Wednesday also pointed to weakening global demand.
The OECD forecast that inflation in the Group of 20 major economies would fall from 7.8 per cent last year to 6.1 per cent this year and 4.7 per cent in 2024 – still well above many central banks’ targets despite the interest rate hikes.
“A substantial risk is that inflation proves to be more persistent and in response interest rates need to be higher for longer,” OECD chief economist Clare Lombardelli told a news conference.
OECD head Mathias Cormann chimed in saying that the risk of major central banks doing too little or too much was currently “evenly balanced”.
U.S. Federal Reserve officials have flagged a possible pause in interest rate hikes while the European Central Bank has indicated that further increases are likely in the coming months.
In the OECD’s outlook, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s main interest rate was seen peaking soon at 5.25-5.5 per cent, with “modest” rate cuts in the second half of 2024.
In the euro area, the OECD expects the ECB to keep raising rates in the face of still high core inflation, with a peak seen in the third quarter. It forecast the ECB would then leave its main rate at 4.25 per cent until the end of 2024.
The Bank of Japan was expected to keep monetary policy accommodative, with no increase until the end of 2024, while U.K. rates were seen peaking some time from the second quarter of 2023.
The OECD forecast the U.S. economy would grow 1.6 per cent this year before slowing to 1 per cent in 2024, with the lagged effect of rate hikes hitting the world’s biggest economy particularly hard. It had previously foreseen U.S. growth of 1.5 per cent this year and 0.9 per cent in 2024.
Boosted by the end of COVID restrictions, the Chinese economy was expected to grow 5.4 per cent in 2023 before moderating to 5.1 per cent in 2024. China’s growth was previously forecast at 5.3 per cent and 4.9 per cent respectively.
As Europe’s winter energy price shock fades, euro area growth was seen accelerating from 0.9 per cent this year to 1.5 per cent in 2024 as lower inflation weighed less on incomes. In March, the OECD saw growth of 0.8 per cent in 2023 and 1.4 per cent in 2024.
Similarly, U.K. growth was seen rising from 0.3 per cent in 2023 to 1 per cent in 2024 as real income growth starts to improve. The UK’s outlook was raised from March forecasts for –0.2 per cent in 2023 and 0.9 per cent in 2024.