Middle East crude benchmarks Oman, Dubai and Murban advanced on Wednesday, underpinned by active spot trades and easing concerns about supply glut as U.S. crude output is expected to grow at a slower pace.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Tuesday cut its forecast for domestic oil growth in 2024 by 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 170,000 bpd, sharply lower than last year’s output increase of 1.02 million bpd.
The agency also forecasted monthly production in the U.S. will not exceed the record set last December until February 2025.
U.S. crude oil exports to Asia tumbled to 1 million barrels per day in January, the lowest in over two years as high freight rates and more competitively-priced Middle Eastern oils slashed shipments.
The arbitrage window for U.S. crude in Asia remains shut this month as freight costs continued to be elevated by the geopolitical factors. Meanwhile, oil producers in the Middle East held their official selling prices (OSPs) steady to ensure market shares, which would encourage refiners to request full term volumes for March cargoes.
S&P Global Platts’ Dubai partials saw another busy trading session on Wednesday, resulting in three convergences, as traders rushed to seal deals ahead of a week-long Chinese Lunar New Year holiday.
Cash Dubai’s premium to swaps rose 13 cents to $0.88 per barrel.
Russia’s crude oil exports from its western ports in February have been revised up from previous estimates as Rosneft boosts exports amid an outage at the Tuapse refinery, market sources citing loading schedules said on Tuesday.
Delays in oil product deliveries due to ships being diverted to avoid attacks in the Red Sea are impacting product markets in Europe in particular, an International Energy Agency executive said on Wednesday.
State oil giant Saudi Aramco is in investment discussions with companies in India, a senior executive said on Wednesday.
India is expected to be the largest driver of global oil demand growth between 2023 and 2030, narrowly taking the lead from top importer China, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.