The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate by a hefty three-quarters of a point for a second straight time in its most aggressive drive in three decades to tame high inflation.
The Fed’s move will raise its key rate, which affects many consumer and business loans, to a range of 2.25 per cent to 2.5 per cent, its highest level since 2018.
The central bank’s decision follows a jump in inflation to 9.1 per cent, the fastest annual rate in 41 years, and reflects its strenuous efforts to slow price gains across the economy. By raising borrowing rates, the Fed makes it costlier to take out a mortgage or an auto or business loan. Consumers and businesses then presumably borrow and spend less, cooling the economy and slowing inflation.
The Fed is tightening credit even while the economy has begun to weaken, thereby heightening the risk that its rate hikes will cause a recession later this year or next.
“I do not think the U.S. is currently in a recession,” chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday at a news conference in which he suggested that the Fed’s rate hikes have already had some success in slowing the economy and possibly easing inflationary pressures.
That message, with its implication that the Fed may not have to raise rates so aggressively in the coming months, helped ignite a powerful rally on Wall Street. The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 436 points.
Still, the surge in inflation and fear of a recession have eroded consumer confidence and stirred public anxiety about the economy, which is sending frustratingly mixed signals. And with the November midterm elections nearing, Americans’ discontent has diminished U.S. President Joe Biden’s public approval ratings and increased the likelihood that the Democrats will lose control of the House and Senate.
The Fed’s moves to sharply tighten credit have torpedoed the housing market, which is especially sensitive to interest-rate changes. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has roughly doubled in the past year, to 5.5 per cent, and home sales have tumbled.
Consumers are showing signs of cutting spending in the face of high prices. And business surveys suggest that sales are slowing. The central bank is betting that it can slow growth just enough to tame inflation yet not so much as to trigger a recession – a risk that many analysts fear may end badly.
At his news conference, Mr. Powell suggested that with the economy slowing, demand for workers easing modestly and wage growth possibly peaking, the economy is evolving in a way that should help reduce inflation.
“Are we seeing the slowdown in economic activity that we think we need?” he asked. “There’s some evidence that we are.”
The Fed chair also pointed to measures that suggest that investors expect inflation to fall back to the central bank’s 2-per-cent target over time as a sign of confidence in its policies.
Mr. Powell also stood by a forecast Fed officials made last month that their benchmark rate will reach a range of 3.25 per cent to 3.5 per cent by year’s end and roughly a half-percentage point more in 2023. That forecast, if it holds, would mean a slowdown in the Fed’s hikes. The central bank would reach its year-end target if it were to raise its key rate by a half-point when it meets in September and by a quarter-point at each of its meetings in November and December.
With the Fed having now imposed two straight substantial rate hikes, “I do think they’re going to tiptoe from here,” said Thomas Garretson, senior portfolio strategist at RBC Wealth Management.
Mr. Garretson expects the Fed to raise its key rate by a quarter point in both September and November before suspending its hikes. He also said he worries that Mr. Powell may be underestimating the damage that higher rates are causing the job market. Pointing to a steady rise in the number of Americans seeking unemployment aid, Mr. Garretson said that “cracks” may be emerging in what has been a robust labour market.
On Thursday, when the government estimates the gross domestic product for the April-June period, some economists think it may show that the economy shrank for a second straight quarter. That would meet one long-standing assumption for when a recession has begun.
But economists say that wouldn’t necessarily mean a recession had started. During those same six months when the overall economy might have contracted, employers added 2.7 million jobs – more than in most entire years before the pandemic. Wages are also rising at a healthy pace, with many employers still struggling to attract and retain enough workers.
Still, slowing growth puts the Fed’s policy makers in a high-risk quandary: How high should they raise borrowing rates if the economy is decelerating? Weaker growth, if it causes layoffs and raises unemployment, often reduces inflation on its own.
That dilemma could become an even more consequential one for the Fed next year, when the economy may be in worse shape and inflation will likely still exceed the central bank’s 2-per-cent target.
“How much recession risk are you willing to bear to get [inflation] back to 2 per cent, quickly, versus over the course of several years?” asked Nathan Sheets, a former Fed economist who is global chief economist at Citi. “Those are the kinds of issues they’re going to have to wrestle with.”
Economists at Bank of America foresee a “mild” recession later this year. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate a 50-50 likelihood of a recession within two years.
Among analysts who foresee a recession, most predict that it will prove relatively mild. The unemployment rate, they note, is near a 50-year low, and households are overall in solid financial shape, with more cash and smaller debts than after the housing bubble burst in 2008.
Be smart with your money. Get the latest investing insights delivered right to your inbox three times a week, with the Globe Investor newsletter. Sign up today.