Sadly for Quebec Premier Philippe Couillard, being a competent economic and fiscal manager may not be enough.
Mr. Couillard’s Liberal government appears headed for a loss in Monday’s provincial election to Coalition Avenir Québec, a right-wing populist party.
The two parties are in a virtual dead heat, each with roughly 30-per-cent support. But the CAQ is much better placed to win more seats because of its edge among francophone voters, particularly outside the Montreal area. The CAQ has a nearly 80-per-cent chance of forming either a majority or minority government, according to CBC’s Poll Tracker aggregate of recent opinion surveys.
Quebec Liberal Leader Philippe Couillard and his wife, Suzanne Pilote, left, with local candidate Isabelle Malencon, Sept. 21, 2018 in Montreal.Ryan Remiorz/The Canadian Press
If the Liberals lose, it will be in spite of a remarkable economic renaissance under Mr. Couillard, who has been Premier since 2014. An economic laggard for years, Quebec is now a top performer among the provinces on most key economic measures. The province is in the midst of its longest economic expansion in nearly two decades, powered by strong gains in consumer spending, business investment and exports. Economists expect Quebec to trail only Alberta in GDP this year, growing at a rate of 2.4 per cent. Even the chronically moribund housing market is suddenly hot, particularly in and around Montreal. Quebec’s jobless rate stood at 5.6 per cent in July, continuing a recent trend of being lower than the national average. Only Ontario and British Columbia had lower rates.
Even more impressively, Quebec has taken advantage of the good times to work off a mountain of debt accumulated in earlier decades. The province is on track to post its fourth straight surplus in the current fiscal year, even though it is spending more, cutting taxes and socking away billions of dollars in a rainy-day fund. Ottawa’s Parliamentary Budget Officer issued a report this week, identifying Quebec as the only province with a credible plan to become debt-free within 50 years.
Sure, taxes are higher in Quebec than in many other provinces. But those revenues fund such things as the most generous child-care benefits and lowest postsecondary tuition in the country.
But all those positive economic vibes apparently aren’t nearly enough to overcome Quebeckers’ strong desire for change, given that the Liberals have been in power for 13 of the past 15 years. Support for the Liberals stands at an all-time low. Without the good economy, the Liberals might be even lower, pollster Jean-Marc Léger says.
“Quebeckers never vote based on their wallets, contrary to a lot of people across Canada and in the U.S.,” points out Mr. Léger, president and chief executive of Montreal-based Léger Marketing. “In spite of the good economy, people have a lot of reasons to vote against the current government.”
Mr. Couillard already appears resigned to his fate, telling The Globe and Mail’s Les Perreaux this week that he’s a victim of “incumbent syndrome.”
Cuts to health care and the legacy of past corruption scandals easily outweigh more recent favourable economic news.
A Liberal loss could put the province’s record of fiscal restraint at risk. On paper, the small-c conservative CAQ favours smaller government and lower taxes. The party’s platform calls for nearly $2.8-billion worth of tax cuts and spending commitments, offset by such things as eliminating civil-service jobs and reviewing government programs.
But if the CAQ, headed by Leader François Legault, fails to win a majority, it would likely have to seek support from either the Parti Québécois or Québec Solidaire – both left-leaning, pro-Quebec independence parties. That sort of uneasy alliance could make it much tougher for the CAQ to make good on its promised tax cuts, without sacrificing the government’s balanced budget.
“If we have a minority government, it will not be easy to govern,” Mr. Léger said. “The probability of another election in another year would be very high.”
Austerity won’t be an easy sell after an election in which all parties have made billions of dollars worth of promises. If anything, Mr. Léger says Quebeckers are in the mood for less fiscal restraint and more government.
In that environment, a CAQ-led government may be tempted to turn up the fiscal spigot and reverse Mr. Couillard’s legacy.
Quebec’s reign as national champion of fiscal responsibility could be short-lived.