RCMP officers stop people as they enter Canada via Roxham road on the Canada/U.S. border in Hemmingford, Que., on March 25, 2023.Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press
Claude Lavoie is a contributing columnist for The Globe and Mail. He was director-general of economic studies and policy analysis at the Department of Finance from 2008 to 2023.
Immigration was a key issue in the U.S. election campaign, and with both Democrats and Republicans campaigning on taking a tougher stand at the border, we should expect the United States to clamp down on the number of immigrants it allows in.
At a recent campaign event, an aide for Kamala Harris said she would have the “toughest bipartisan border security plan in a generation.” Donald Trump, meanwhile, has made criticism of immigrants his brand, spreading falsehoods about immigrants eating pets, committing crimes and stealing jobs.
As Canada digests the results of Tuesday’s election, one thing is clear: With a new U.S. administration, Ottawa could be pressed to lower its immigration numbers further while many people no longer welcome in the U.S. come knocking on our door. How should we respond?
The recent Canadian flip-flop on immigration suggests our government does not know on which foot to dance. In addition to U.S. policies, growing global inequalities and climate change will continue to increase migratory pressures here and around the world, so it is important to think any immigration policy through and have a robust strategy to stand on.
First things first, Canada must welcome immigrants. The reasons for doing so are largely humanitarian, and we should stop thinking that immigration is the solution to, or the cause of, our problems.
Most studies suggest immigration has a small negative effect on our standard of living (a.k.a. real GDP per capita, ignoring the benefits diversity can bring) in the short term and a small positive impact in the long term.
The time it takes for the negatives to turn positive (if ever) depends on the type of immigrant and the amount of resources devoted to their integration.
The impact quickly becomes positive for young, well-educated economic immigrants who speak one of our official languages and have some education or work experience in Canada. In that context, capping the number of foreign students may not be the best strategy. A better way to deal with diploma mills or students overextending their stay is to put in place and enforce rules and ensure that foreign students have the right academic credentials.
It’s quite different for refugees and family members of immigrants. It takes a long time for the impact to turn positive – often a generation. Ensuring that sufficient resources are allocated to their integration is key.
The increases in immigration targets in 2022 and 2023 should have been accompanied by a significantly larger increase in resources.
First, these resources were likely already insufficient. Second, increasing the number of immigrants necessarily involves accepting immigrants who, under previous targets, would not have been admitted. In other words, additional immigrants have profiles that make their integration more difficult, which requires more resources.
It is also ridiculous that the Quebec government worries that immigration is threatening French while it fails to provide enough money for francization classes. Immigration does not increase crime, nor does it have a significant impact on wages or house prices. Immigrants help fill certain short-term labour shortages but eventually create others, by increasing demand for education, health care and so on. It’s the same with aging: Immigrants age, too, and are often joined by their parents.
Democratic institutions governing people with diverse cultures on an equal footing is a relatively new phenomenon. We are living a great experiment, and racial, religious and cultural tensions observed in many countries suggest it will not be an easy ride. The different cultures of immigrants test and challenge our own institutions and culture, making us uncomfortable. But research shows it is possible for very different people to build trust with time. If rich countries like ours fail with this experiment, the future of the global order will be rather bleak.
Ultimately, the solution to slowing the flow of migration and truly helping people is for Canada, the U.S. and other wealthy countries to contribute to the global effort to limit climate change and reduce global inequalities. Research from the recent winners of the Nobel Prize for economics suggests that helping poorer countries develop better institutions is the best way to reduce these inequalities. The disastrous experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan show how bad we are at this. More international research and co-operation are needed.
Unfortunately, the results of Tuesday’s election will not stop the U.S. from moving toward more nationalistic policies. This is a call for Canada to stand up. Our immigration strategy should be broader than just a numbers game.