Smoke rising from chimneys during an organized media tour in Shaanxi, China on April 26.TINGSHU WANG/Reuters
The blast-furnace heat this summer in large parts of the world, including the Mediterranean countries, the Southern United States and China has delivered fresh urgency to the notion of net-zero emissions. The International Energy Agency says achieving net zero by 2050 is the only way to give us an “even chance” of limiting the rise in global average temperature to 1.5 C. All bets are off for our sorry planet after two degrees, with predictions of biblical horrors ranging from widespread droughts and crop failures to biodiversity collapse and melted polar ice caps. Wildfires are already consuming large swaths of Canada and Hawaii.
The cold truth about global warming is that the chances of achieving net zero, where emissions that are impossible to eradicate are offset by burying carbon dioxide or sucking it out of the air, are declining by the hour. The IEA says that energy-related emissions – energy production of all types produces the vast majority of carbon output – rose six per cent in 2021 and almost one per cent last year, setting another record high.
No surprise that the main culprit is China, whose emissions keep surging as Beijing dribbles out alarming signals that its commitment to reach net zero by 2060 (the pledge of most industrialized countries is 2050) is far from a sure thing. To be sure, countries everywhere will have trouble meeting their net-zero targets, but their will to get even close might evaporate if the biggest emitter of them all by a long shot makes a mockery of its own targets. They would consider the trillions of dollars spent to decarbonize their economies a waste of money – or worse, a net transfer of wealth and jobs to China and its carbon-belching industries.
China officially insists that it remains in the net-zero game. In July, Chinese President Xi Jinping told a national environmental protection conference that his country’s commitment to reach carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality 30 years later was “unwavering.” At the same time, he dismissed the pleadings of U.S. climate envoy John Kerry, who attended the conference, to speed up China’s decarbonization efforts. According to state news agency Xinhua, Mr. Xi said, “The path, method, pace and intensity to achieve this goal should and must be determined by ourselves and will never be influenced by others.”
Nations set to agree on shipping emissions cuts but fall short on climate goals
That was not the first hint that China’s go-it-alone climate policy threatens to undermine the net-zero pledges it made under the 2015 Paris Agreement. Last year, at the UN’s climate conference in Egypt, China (along with India and Russia) failed to set targets for the output of methane and other non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases. Since methane is 20 times more powerful at trapping heat in the atmosphere than CO2, its rapid reduction is essential. China also refused to contribute to a new fund that would compensate poor countries for the climate damage, such as flooding, that they endure.
India and China propose multiple pathways on cutting use of fossil fuels, sources say
China is leading the world in rolling out solar and wind farms and is the largest market for electric vehicles, but those attributes have not stopped the relentless rise in carbon emissions. China is not the largest historic emitter of greenhouse gases – that dubious honour goes to the United States – but it is the current output torchbearer as its economy and heavy industries expand.
The World Bank says China is responsible for a third of the world’s greenhouse gases (Canada, about 1.5 per cent). A recent report by Finland’s Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air said China’s emissions rose four per cent year over year in the first three months of 2023, the highest output on record.
Propelling the rise are new coal plants. Such plants are becoming pariahs in the West; not so in China, where they are needed not so much to meet overall demand but daily peak periods, as temperatures rise and millions of overheated families buy air conditioners. Carbon Brief reported that governments in China approved 10 gigawatts of new coal plants in the first quarter of this year, after approving 100 gigawatts in 2022 – the equivalent of 100 large plants. The online publication, which specializes in climate-change science and policy, said the capacity of the plants under construction last year was six times that of the rest of the world. Since coal burners last 30 years or more, there is a good chance they will still be operational, and generating revenue for local Chinese governments, precisely when the country’s net-zero deadline arrives.
You can see where this is going. China’s net-zero pledge deadline seems unlikely to be met, barring a scientific breakthrough that allows cheap, clean power generation. China, building coal burners with alacrity, has yet to state credibly how it will achieve net zero 37 years from now even as its emissions keep rising. The country may have little incentive to move fast on cutting emissions because cheap electricity generated in good part by fossil fuels is allowing it to create world-beating industries, such as EV and solar-panel production. At some point, the West will ask: Why are we punishing our economies to achieve net zero when China, the biggest emitter, is not?