A politician whose country has emerged from the fog of COVID-19 with its strongest economic growth in decades, rising incomes, increased investment and the lowest jobless rate in 13 years ought to be enjoying a bump in popularity and a relatively easy ride to re-election. Unless he happens to be Emmanuel Macron and the country he governs is France.
Mr. Macron is expected to prevail over far-right flag bearer Marine Le Pen in the presidential runoff vote on Sunday, as the then political neophyte did in 2017. Polls show his margin widening on the eve of the election. But his political career could still be toast if he can’t attract enough support from the leftist opposition and voter turnout turns out to be low.
French President Emmanuel Macron defeats far-right rival Marine Le Pen, projections show
In their first head-to-head battle five years ago, the former investment banker corralled more than two-thirds of the vote. He managed to lure moderates from the left and right with promises to fix France’s sputtering economy, tackle chronic double-digit unemployment and repair battered public finances through a slew of tax, labour, pension, education and administrative reforms.
Mr. Macron pulled off another remarkable coup a few weeks later when his fledgling centrist political party, La République En Marche, emerged with a strong majority in parliamentary elections, handing him what appeared to be an overwhelming mandate to pursue his ambitious domestic agenda.
But it didn’t take him long to realize that without a natural electoral base of support, it would be an extremely difficult task. The French were not exactly eager to embrace change, especially when it came to their cherished but increasingly unaffordable welfare state.
Previous reform-minded French politicians have watched their careers go up in smoke over far less ambitious efforts to discard hidebound ways.
By late 2018, Mr. Macron’s popularity had plunged to a record low amid growing public protests triggered initially by planned fuel tax hikes and then propelled by a host of other grievances. He regained some ground the following year, and his effective measures in the early months of the pandemic – including hefty subsidies to protect employment – brought his approval rating above 50 per cent for the first time.
But it was not destined to last, amid further COVID-19 waves, reimposed lockdowns and worsening economic pain. And he remains remarkably unpopular with a wide swath of voters under age 60.
One reason for the persistent animosity is that the former investment banker is viewed as an aloof technocrat whose corporate and personal tax cuts, and other policies to boost investment, put the interests of the wealthy and the business elite first. “He’s a rich man’s president,” is the way a retired accountant in Mr. Macron’s home region in northern France described him to Politico.
After plunging into a pandemic-triggered recession in 2020, France’s economy bounced back impressively last year with 7-per-cent growth, outpacing every other major country. More important, France’s jobless rate fell to 7.4 per cent in the fourth quarter, its lowest in 13 years. That’s close to the 7 per cent Mr. Macron promised during his first campaign that France would reach by the end of his term.
Stubbornly high youth unemployment slid to 15.9 per cent, down from 24.7 per cent when he moved into the Élysée Palace. Yet despite his efforts to overhaul the sclerotic education system and improve job-training to better suit the modern market, he has gained little traction among young voters. Instead, they have turned in growing numbers to politicians operating at the more extreme ends of the political spectrum.
Far-left populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who finished a surprisingly strong third in the first round, easily outpolled Mr. Macron among voters aged 18 to 24. He came close to knocking Ms. Le Pen out of the race by focusing on the President’s mixed environmental record and promising to tackle the widening income gap and rising cost of living, which has emerged as the biggest issue in the campaign.
Ms. Le Pen was the preferred choice for everyone else under age 60, who obviously haven’t paid much attention to her misbegotten economic proposals.
Influential French economist Jean Tirole, a Nobel laureate, declared that her strange mix of tax cuts, including eliminating income tax for everyone under the age of 30, higher subsidies for farmers, blatant discrimination against immigrants and foreign residents, and a plan to illegally withhold billions of euros in payments to Brussels, would “permanently impoverish our country.” France, he warned, would come to be viewed by the markets as “a European version of Argentina.”
Mr. Macron has been valiantly trying to persuade Mr. Melenchon’s bloc of disgruntled voters that he understands their fears and concerns, and he has worked hard to discard his sometimes detached public demeanour. But no more than a third say they will support him, and only because he is the less awful choice.
Renowned French travel writer Sylvain Tesson has called France “a paradise inhabited by people who believe they are in hell.”
As he heads into Sunday’s runoff, Mr. Macron can attest to that. Yet barring a huge and unwelcome upset that would send investors stampeding for the exits, he is about to get another five years at the helm of a country chock full of some of the world’s most chronically argumentative voters.
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