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Rain so hard that it floods the highways. Wildfires that swoop in quickly then cause smoke to linger for months. Earthquakes and hurricanes and extreme heat. The climate is changing and that means new strains on our infrastructure and lives, as well as the need for new skills to effectively deal with the changes.
All workers will be affected by a warming planet. As every season but summer gets shorter, the number of days with extremely high temperatures will increase which will bring all the risks that come with working in the heat. From health issues including respiratory and cardiovascular events through to heat stress and exhaustion that affects productivity and absenteeism, climate will have an impact. Although its relatively cool climate gives Canada some protection, no country can be shielded from the impact of environmental change.
Canada is already in the process of moving to ‘net-zero’ (a situation where the amount of greenhouse gas or GHG produced equals the amount removed from the atmosphere) and we know that will mean an industrial transition away from industries that produce high GHG emissions. Beyond that, however, any country that wants to be ahead of environmental change needs to have a plan to develop ‘green skills’ and fill ‘green jobs’ – although there has yet to be a universally accepted definition as to what those actually are.
As for green jobs, they might include any jobs that fill a green function no matter the industry, as well as all jobs in sectors thought to contribute toward preserving the environment. In their Employment Outlook for 2024, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) defines green jobs as all jobs that will be impacted by the move to net-zero and by their calculations about 20 per cent of workers in their member countries are employed in green occupations. Canada is slightly higher than average, with 20.6 per cent of workers defined as having green jobs.
What is a little hazier to define but just as important are ‘green skills’, or the skills that will allow us to deal with the environmental challenges ahead. Of course these encompass technical areas, but they also cover a broad range of soft skills as well. According to the OECD, the new ‘green jobs’ will be linked to the knowledge economy and will need workers who have a mix of hard and soft skills including critical thinking, active learning, complex problem solving and decision making, all of which are also skills that workers will need to deal with the other economic challenges ahead.
As we move to the net-zero future, we know that some jobs will be eliminated as environmental measures are adopted. Employment will decline in high emissions industries and grow in new sectors and that will be pressure on workers to adapt. The OECD report concludes that the workers with green skills, whatever their current jobs, will find it easier to transition from GHG-intensive occupations into green jobs. They use the example of petroleum engineers, a GHG-intensive occupation, but one where workers have skills that are valued in green jobs such as environmental engineering and as climate change policy analysts. For those wishing to transition between industries, some retraining would be necessary, but it would be manageable for most.
Workers who do not have green skills will find it more difficult to shift occupations. In this case the OECD uses the example of ‘rolling machine setters and operators’, who are employed in high numbers in GHG-intensive industries. As those industries pare back employment, those workers will have to find other jobs and one they might consider, according to the report, is that of ‘biomass plant technician’ which is one where hiring is anticipated to grow.
However, the report notes that the skills profile of this occupation is quite different than that of a rolling machine setter and requires a knowledge of mathematics, physics and chemistry as well as computer electronics, engineering and technology. Retraining would be a much more onerous task and would likely require support from business and government.
Not providing such support would hurt the affected workers and contribute to inequality in general. The OECD estimates that workers who lose their jobs in high-emissions industries will face 24-per-cent larger earnings losses over six years after dismissal than would workers who are dismissed from jobs in other industries. That is, they are losing jobs in sectors that have traditionally been extremely profitable and thus paid well including energy production, heavy manufacturing and transport and are likely find work in industries that do not meet those benchmarks. The OECD is optimistic however in terms of how well they expect Canadian workers to do compared to those in other countries, saying that the labour market is strong enough to reallocate many jobs.
There is no going back: the earth is changing and that will mean a changing labour market. Being ahead of the curve on that will benefit Canada in two ways, by giving us the skills to help us with the transition and to support the workers who are in the industries where jobs will shrink. Not doing so will have both environmental and economic costs.