Briefing highlights
- Self-employed holding steady
- Stocks, loonie, oil at a glance
- National Bank raises dividend
- Current account deficit grows
- What to expect from BoC’s Wilkins
- Required Reading
Gig economy
Not everyone wants to be their own boss and drive for Uber.
Which, says Bank of Montreal senior economist Sal Guatieri, “goes against the common perception that the gig economy is transforming the workplace.”
Mr. Guatieri was referring to a Statistics Canada study, released this week, which showed the number of self-employed workers in the country rising, but their share of the work force holding relatively steady over the past couple of decades.
The study by Statistics Canada analyst Lahouaria Yssaad and senior analyst Vincent Ferrao pegged the number of self-employed at 2.9 million people last year, a jump from 1.2 million in 1976.
But that represented 15 per cent of the work force, compared to 12 per cent.
And look at a somewhat shorter, but still long, timeframe, and here’s what you get:
“About 15 per cent of workers are currently self-employed, little changed from a quarter century ago and before the widespread adoption of the Internet in the late 1990s,” said BMO’s Mr. Guatieri.
“Uber and online contract work are fine for some, but most people still want a steady paycheque from an employer,” he added.
For the record, Ms. Yssaad and Mr. Ferrao found that one-third of the ranks of the self-employed “cited independence, freedom, being one’s own boss as the main reason they were in self-employment.”
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Markets at a glance
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National Bank raises dividend
National Bank of Canada is raising its quarterly dividend amid a gain in second-quarter profit.
The payout goes up 3 cents to 68 cents.
National Bank profit rose to in the quarter to $558-million or $1.51 a share, from $547-million or $1.44 a year earlier.
That 5-per-cent per-share increase was “driven essentially by growth in most business segments, tempered by a slowdown in the financial markets segment,” the bank said.
Return on equity slipped to 17.8 per cent from 18.6 per cent.
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Current account deficit grows
Canada’s current account deficit fattened up in the first quarter, widening by a less-than-expected $700-million to $17.3-billion.
The shortfall on goods and services trade increased by $1.2-billion, as a $2.3-billion gain in exports was eclipsed by a $3.6-billion rise in imports, Statistics Canada said.
On the investment income side of the ledger, the deficit eased by $200-million to $1.2-billion.
Ticker
Brazil flirts with recession
From Reuters: Brazil’s economy shrank in the first quarter for the first time since 2016, data showed on Thursday, underscoring a deepening malaise in Latin America’s largest economy and pushing it closer to a double-dip recession.
Greyhound on the block
From Reuters: Dallas-based Greyhound was put up for sale by Britain’s FirstGroup as the North American bus line battles to compete with growing pressure from low cost airlines.
U.S. growth revised down a tick
From Reuters: U.S. gross domestic product increased at a 3.1-per-cent annualized rate, the government said in its second reading of first-quarter GDP. That was slightly down from the 3.2-per-cent pace estimated last month.
What to watch for today
Markets will play close attention to a speech by Carolyn Wilkins, the Bank of Canada’s senior deputy governor, to a Calgary business group, listening for elaboration on what the central bank had to say Wednesday.
Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn WilkinsSean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
As The Globe and Mail’s Barrie McKenna reports, Ms. Wilkins, governor Stephen Poloz and their colleagues held their key overnight rate steady at 1.75 per cent, and gave no clues as to where they might be headed, and when.
While the Canadian economy’s funk may have been short-lived, they flagged global uncertainties as weighing on the outlook.
“We will be looking in particular for any signs to what extent the medium-term outlook may have been dampened by recent trade conflicts, given the worry expressed in some financial markets,” Mr. Chandler, head of Canadian rates strategy at RBC Dominion Securities, said of the chat by Ms. Wilkins.
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Required Reading
Keep calm and …
Bond markets are shouting that a U.S. slowdown is nigh. Ian McGugan looks at why, given that, stock markets appear so calm.
Stress test takes toll
Canada’s mortgage stress test is taking a toll on new house construction, with building activity expected to drop by as much as $8-billion this year alone, a new report estimates. Real estate writer Janet McFarland reports.
Beer showdown
Ontario Premier Doug Ford is risking an “epic” trade gaffe with his Beer Store showdown, columnist Barrie McKenna warns.