Briefing highlights
- Economic growth lame: BMO
- Stocks, loonie, oil at a glance
- Trade gap narrows as exports jump
- Magna cuts forecast
- Canadian Tire profit slips
- Telus, Quebecor boost dividends
- Required Reading
Growth to lag
Bank of Montreal’s new forecast paints a picture of a lame Canadian economy but with “a few things going for it.”
First off, BMO projected economic growth at an annual pace of just 0.7 per cent in the first quarter of the year, which would pick up to 2.3 per cent in the current quarter and 2.2 per cent in the third, followed by a pullback to 1.5 per cent in the final three months of the year.
Annual growth was forecast at 1.5 per cent this year, and 1.7 per cent next.
Among the bright spots is the rebound in crude prices and the much narrower discount on Canadian oil, said BMO senior economist Sal Guatieri.
“While this won’t overcome regulatory hurdles and spur new investment, it will pump much-needed revenue into the coffers of energy producers and Alberta’s government,” Mr. Guatieri said.
Also buoying the economy is the sharpest increase in population in 25 years, pumped by international migration.
“This has boosted labour force growth and eased worker shortages, in turn encouraging hiring,” Mr. Guatieri said.
“Outside the energy patch, business investment intentions remain positive, according to the [Bank of Canada’s] business outlook survey. The federal government’s accelerated depreciation allowance was a helpful initial step in bridging the competiveness gap.”
So what’s not to love?
“The bad news is that wages and productivity are depressed, with the former rising about 2 per cent in the past year and the latter stalling after a listless decade,” said the report released this week.
“Zero real wage gains provide little support to consumers, while zero productivity undercuts competitiveness further,” it added.
And with economic growth coming in only slightly faster than population growth, there’s a threat unemployment could shoot up from its multidecade lows, Mr. Guatieri said.
There’s more feeding this “downbeat economy,” including the previous Alberta government’s forced cuts to oil production, though that’s easing.
“Mandated oil output cuts are a factor, but the bigger issue is that even non-energy exports have backfired recently due to a slowing global economy, fading competitiveness and trade tensions with both the U.S. (metals) and China (agriculture),” Mr. Guatieri said.
“Consumers are in no mood to drive the expansion, as they are now borrowing at the slowest rate in 35 years to get a handle on record debt burdens,” he added.
“Meantime, the housing market is merely steadying after last year’s slump in the face of higher interest rates and tougher lending rules, and remains weak in some regions, notably Vancouver and the oil-producing provinces.”
BMO also projected the Canadian dollar would continue to suffer given there’s “so much stacked against it,” forecasting a loonie sitting below 75 US cents for most of this year.
As for the Bank of Canada, “the tightening hurdle appears high, barring an upside growth surprise,” Mr. Guatieri said.
“At the same time, a rate cut is unlikely given that core inflation is on target and growth is expected to improve at least somewhat this summer,” he added. “We see a standoff, with rates on hold for the next two years.”
Read more
- Why this long economic expansion ain’t over till it’s over
- David Parkinson: U.S. GDP report could be papering over some widening cracks
- Looming recession or ‘head fake’? Here’s how you’ll know
- Sell in May and go away? Ditch that market strategy this year, study says
- Probability of Canadian recession ‘small but rising’: Scotiabank
- U.S. economy grows 3.2 per cent in first quarter, but contributing factors believed to be temporary
- U.S. job growth surges as unemployment rate drops to 3.6 per cent
Markets at a glance
Read more
Exports rise
Canadian exports jumped 3.2 per cent in March, eclipsing a 2.5-per-cent rise in imports to narrow the country’s trade deficit to $3.2-billion from February’s $3.4-billion.
Exports rose in nine of the 11 categories measured. Not only that, volumes rose 2.6 per cent, with prices up 0.6 per cent.
Exports got a boost from a 7.7-per-cent rise in energy products, Statistics Canada said. Car exports also climbed.
“Canadian international trade finally bounced back to life in March with a healthy export volumes print,” said Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Omar Abdelrahman.
“Additionally, the rebound in consumer-related and [machinery and equipment] imports is a positive sign for domestic demand,” he added.
“Of course, one month of data doesn’t make a trend, and the fly in the ointment in this report is a substantial downward revision to the prior month’s data. On the whole, export volumes were still down a significant 2.4 per cent in the first quarter.”
Read more
- Canada’s trade deficit shrinks slightly to $3.21-billion on higher energy exports
- U.S. trade deficit edges up to $50-billion after falling in February
Ticker
Magna cuts forecast
From Reuters: Magna International Inc. lowered its 2019 profit forecast, as it expects higher costs on certain programs and lower earnings from a transmission joint venture in China. Magna said it expects profit attributable to the company to be between US$1.9-billion and US$2.1-billion this year. For the first quarter, profit attributable to the auto parts company rose to US$1.11-billion, or US$3.39 a share, from US$660-million or US$1.83 a year earlier.
Canadian Tire profit drops
From Reuters: Canadian Tire Corp. reported a 1.7-per-cent drop in first-quarter profit due to higher interest expense and lease liabilities. Profit fell to $97.4-million, or $1.12 a share, from $99.1-million or $1.18 a year earlier. Revenue rose 2.8 per cent to $2.89-billion.
Telus raises dividend
From The Canadian Press: Telus Corp. raised its dividend as it reported a first-quarter profit of $437-million, up from $412-million a year earlier. On a per-share basis, profit rose to 71 cents from 69 cents.
Quebecor boosts dividend
From The Canadian Press: Quebecor Inc. more than doubled its dividend as it reported its first-quarter profit rose compared with a year earlier. Profit rose to $189-million or 74 cents a share from $57.1-million or 24 cents.
Also ...
- Brookfield reports drop in first-quarter profit
- Cineplex reports $7.4-million loss as attendance drops
Required Reading
GM to transform ill-fated plant
General Motors Canada says it will spend $170-million to transform its plant in Oshawa, Ont., into a spare-parts maker that will employ 300, rather than closing the facility when car production ends in December, Eric Atkins writes.
Ontario cuts funding
The Ontario government is cutting funding that supports startup and later-stage businesses, prompting cutbacks at some of Canada’s top innovation institutions. Josh O’Kane and Sean Silcoff report.
Look closely at mortgages
Interest-only mortgages have quietly resurfaced in Canada, Robert McLister writes. And with careful use, they could boost your retirement savings.