Honda’s EV deal, Bank of Canada’s rate cut timing and capital-gains tax hike concerns: Business and investing news for April 28

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Getting caught up on a week that got away? Here’s your weekly digest of the Globe’s most essential business and investing stories, with insights and analysis from the pros, stock tips, portfolio strategies and more.

Federal government and Ontario announce $15-billion Honda EV deal

In Canada’s latest bet on electric-vehicle production, the federal and Ontario governments have announced a multibillion-dollar deal with Honda Motor Co. The deal will expand the company’s Alliston, Ont., plant to manufacture electric vehicles and establish a stand-alone battery-manufacturing plant, as well as adding facilities for cathode materials and separator components. The governments say it is the largest ever single investment in Canada’s auto sector. Ottawa is expected to give Honda around $2.5-billion through tax credits, and Ontario has committed to providing up to $2.5-billion for the costs of construction and servicing, Jeff Gray and Adam Radwanski report. Plus: A list of Canada’s planned EV projects so far.

Canada’s per capita output drops 7% below trend, new Statscan report says

Canada’s economic output on a per capita basis has dropped to 7 per cent below its long-term trend, according to a Statistics Canada report published this week. The real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita would need to grow at an average annual rate of 1.7 per cent to return to trend over the next decade. The report’s authors write that “per capita growth of this magnitude is ambitious and a marked departure from recent trends.” Canada’s declining economic performance on a per person basis has become a hot topic of discussion over the past couple of years. Productivity is the bedrock of per capita growth, Matt Lundy reports, but Bank of Canada’s senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers said last month that the country is facing an “emergency” of weak labour productivity and tepid levels of business investment.

Canada’s supermarkets are losing the battle for your grocery bill

It looks like Canadians are changing the places where they buy their groceries. Statistics Canada reported a drop in retail sales this week, except for in the general merchandise category. General merchandisers saw inflation-adjusted sales climb 12 per cent, while food and beverage stores suffered a real sales decline of 0.9 per cent. That likely means that shoppers are moving away from domestic grocery chains such as Loblaw Cos. Ltd., Sobeys Inc. and Metro and moving towards general merchandisers such as Walmart Costco Wholesale Corp. Jason Kirby takes a closer look at the latest statistics in this week’s Decoder.

Bank of Canada officials split on rate-cut timing, but agree easing will be gradual

In other economic news, Bank of Canada officials are split on when to start lowering interest rates. But a summary of the discussions that took place ahead of the April 10 rate decision shows the six-person council is becoming more confident that inflation is on a path back to the 2-per-cent target. This opens the door to interest-rate cuts in the coming months, Mark Rendell reports. According to Refinitiv data, financial markets put the odds of a June rate cut at around 45 per cent and the odds of a July rate cut at 80 per cent. The next Bank of Canada decision is on June 5.

Changes to capital-gains tax may prompt doctors to quit, CMA warns

One of the most controversial proposals that came out of the recent federal budget was an increase to the capital-gains inclusion rate. The government said that it’ll only affect the wealthiest of Canadians. But it has since received much criticism from several groups, including business owners, doctors and even people who own cottages. The head of the Canadian Medical Association says the changes will pose a significant financial hit to doctors and may push some out of the profession, Chris Hannay reports. Meanwhile, cottage owners looking to sell are scrambling to close deals before the changes take effect on June 25, Jenna Legge reports.

So you bought a pipeline. Now what?

A dozen years ago the most expensive infrastructure project in Canadian history began as an attempt to provide a simple transport route to the West Coast for oil production. The project saw plenty of delays and opposition, but the $34-billion Trans Mountain pipeline expansion is about to go into service. Now comes the hard part: choosing when to sell it, who gets to buy it, and for how much.

Now that you’re all caught up, test your knowledge with our weekly business and investing news quiz and prepare for the week ahead with the Globe’s investing calendar.