Like many places across Canada, Toronto’s population is growing by leaps and bounds, largely because of strong immigration. Conversely, the city is losing a chunk of residents: young kids.
There were roughly 295,000 babies and toddlers (ages zero to four) in the Toronto area as of July 1, 2023, a decrease of around 25,000 over four years, according to Statistics Canada figures published this week.
As of 2001, nearly one-fifth of Toronto-area residents were ages 14 and under; today, it’s 14 per cent.
This demographic shift is somewhat expected, because the country is aging and there are fewer births. But Toronto is also experiencing an outflow of young families to more affordable parts of Ontario.
Over the 12 months to July 1 of last year, the Toronto area saw a net loss of around 14,600 kids (14 and under) on an intraprovincial basis. Put differently, 14,600 more kids left Toronto for other parts of Ontario than moved in.
Outflows from urban areas are common in Canada – think couples starting families and moving to the suburbs – but the exodus has become especially large in Toronto in the past few years. Similarly, Toronto is not unique in seeing a shrinking population of its youngest residents; the same trend is found in Montreal, Vancouver and elsewhere.
On the flip side, some parts of Southern Ontario have experienced a recent influx of kids. Since 2019, the population of babies and toddlers has risen by 10.9 per cent in the Oshawa area, 8.3 per cent in Brantford and 7.9 per cent in the Niagara region.
Decoder is a weekly feature that unpacks an important economic chart.
Matt Lundy