Economists and policy experts are expressing growing concern over a potential new federal immigration program that would immediately grant permanent residency to temporary residents who are in low-wage jobs.
The program, if launched, would target people who already have Canadian work experience in what Ottawa classifies as TEER 4 and TEER 5 occupations – delivery service drivers, caregivers, food production workers and retail staff, to name a few.
TEER stands for Training, Education, Experience and Responsibilities, and it is a job categorization system the government uses for immigration purposes. TEER 4 and TEER 5 workers typically have a high school diploma or little or no formal education at all.
International students on postgraduate work permits who have been struggling to find permanent high-skilled work and temporary foreign workers occupying low-wage jobs stand to benefit the most from the program, if it comes into fruition, economists and policy experts say.
But they argue that it is a puzzling move for a country that has had, for decades, a points-based immigration system that prioritizes individuals with the highest earnings potential.
“The reality is that permanent resident slots are fixed. So every time you prioritize a TEER 4 or TEER 5 applicant, it means somebody else at a higher skill level is not going to be admitted,” said Mikal Skuterud, an economist at the University of Waterloo who has been an outspoken critic of Ottawa’s recent immigration policies, which have led to a large uptick in the number of temporary residents in the country.
The new program hasn’t been formally announced and it is still unclear if and when Ottawa intends to launch it. But this past April, a bulletin in the Canada Gazette, the internal newspaper of the Canadian government, stated that consultations would begin on amending immigration laws to admit a “new permanent economic class of workers in TEER 4 and TEER 5 jobs.”
In an e-mail to The Globe and Mail, Immigration Ministry spokesperson Matthew Krupovich said that details on a new pathway to permanent residence would be shared publicly if the program is launched. He added that the aim of the program is to fill “long-standing labour market needs” and that a “pathway for workers in occupations such as caregiving, personal support, food production or construction could improve transitions from temporary residence to permanent residence.”
But Toronto-based immigration lawyer Ravi Jain said the biggest problem with creating yet another pathway to permanent residence is that the government does not intend to raise its overall immigration targets.
“The pie is no longer expanding. It is 500,000 people annually who will get PR,” he said, citing Ottawa’s targets for 2025 and 2026. If you’re now going to add in low-skilled workers, you’re crowding out some of the more educated immigrants who are larger tax contributors.”
Some of Mr. Jain’s clients – mostly graduates in business and tech from elite international universities – have been struggling to garner enough points in Canada’s Express Entry pool to obtain an invitation for permanent residence.
Immigration candidates in the Express Entry pool are assigned a score through the Comprehensive Ranking System, which accounts for factors such as age, education and employment history. The score corresponds to their expected earnings in Canada, based on the outcomes of previous cohorts of immigrants.
For years, every two weeks, Ottawa had selected a few thousand people with the highest scores to apply for PR. But since last summer, the federal government has frequently selected people because of their French-language skills or work experience in specific jobs. For everyone else, the cut-off score to get a PR invite through the Express Entry system has increased, disadvantaging high-skilled, highly-educated immigrants.
“Now the government could be adding in a whole new pathway to PR for low-wage workers making it even tougher for the high-skilled folks. What kind of economy are we trying to create?” Mr. Jain said.
One theory as to why the government may be considering granting PR to a large number of low-wage workers already in the country is that it would, in effect, reduce the number of temporary residents and discourage immigrants from staying in the country on expired work permits.
Canada’s temporary resident population has increased rapidly since 2021, fuelled by large growth in the number of international students and an expansion of the Temporary Foreign Worker program, which allowed businesses to fill many low-wage jobs with foreigners. As of the first quarter of this year, Canada had 2.8 million temporary residents, or 6.8 per cent of the total population. That is almost double the number two years ago. In March, Ottawa announced that it would reduce the number of temporary residents to 5 per cent over the next three years.
“I do not think this new plan is about meeting labour market needs. I suspect it is to sharply reduce the current temporary resident population bulge and to hedge against the growing problem of visa overstayers,” said Prof. Skuterud.
Myla, a 31-year-old immigrant from the Philippines, has struggled to find permanent, full-time work since graduating from Sault College in Ontario last summer. A midwife by training, she had enrolled in a personal support worker certificate program at the tail end of the COVID-19 pandemic in the hopes it would increase her chances of obtaining permanent residency. Canada needs PSWs, an immigration agency in Manilla had told her. Sign up for a PSW program at a local Canadian college and you’re a shoo-in for PR, they said.
Myla spoke to The Globe on condition of anonymity because she did not want to jeopardize her immigration status. She has two years left on a postgraduate work permit and holds three part-time caregiver jobs.
During the day, she’s a nanny for two different families. In the evenings, she works for a senior citizen with a disability – formal employment arranged by her immigration agency. Most of her classmates are in the same boat. None of them managed to secure a full-time PSW job and, more importantly, no employer was willing to fill in the paperwork to allow them to begin the PR process.
This past week, the immigration agency in the Philippines sent out a WhatsApp text to Myla and other clients about Ottawa’s new program. She said it was the most relief she had felt since arriving in Canada in 2021. She had planned to stay in the country, accepting under-the-table jobs even after her permit expired.
Miranda Ferrer, president of the Ontario Personal Support Worker Association, an industry group that represents more than 60,000 PSWs across the province, said it is common for international PSW graduates to not find full-time work upon graduation. “Employers are extremely hesitant in making that commitment. It’s expensive for them to pay into pension plans and employment insurance plans for full-time work. They would prefer an abundant and steady supply of casual and part-time workers.”
As of July, 2024, according to the Immigration Ministry, there were 439,295 foreign nationals who held a valid postgraduate work permit in Canada. But the ministry has scant information on the number of undocumented workers, saying it could range from 20,000 to 500,000 people. In an interview with The Globe this past June, Immigration Minister Marc Miller stated that the number of undocumented workers could range from 300,000 to 600,000 people.
It would be almost impossible to know how many PGWP holders have gone on to become visa overstayers, Prof. Skuterud said.
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal told the Liberal government at a gathering last year that it could be vastly underestimating the number of visa overstayers in the country. He warned that the bulk of non-permanent residents would never obtain skilled jobs and they would therefore find it impossible to gain permanent residency.
This is perhaps exactly why Ottawa is thinking of introducing a new path to permanent residency for low-wage workers, Prof. Skuterud and Toronto immigration lawyer Ravi Jain both say.
“The easiest way to deal with this problem is to create a new pathway to permanent residence,” Prof. Skuterud said. “But it’s not smart policy. It will more likely suppress wages and undermine public support for immigration.”
With files from Matt Lundy