Canada’s inflation rate fell to 2.5% in July, paving way for another BoC rate cut

10:35 a.m.

What’s next?

There is not much happening between Tuesday’s inflation report and the next Bank of Canada rate announcement on Sept. 4.

Statistics Canada will publish numbers on retail spending on Friday, along with gross domestic product for the second quarter on Aug. 30. However, it’s unlikely that either would disrupt the central bank from further easing monetary policy next month, as is widely expected.

Interest rate swaps, which capture market expectations of monetary policy, are pricing in rate cuts at each of the next three announcements this year. That would take the bank’s benchmark interest rate to 3.75 per cent.

– Matt Lundy

10:20 a.m.

Is price relief finally coming for rent costs and mortgage renewals?

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With the annual inflation rate slowing to 2.5 per cent, price relief is finally coming to where it matters most: shelter.

Even as the overall pace of inflation has been on a gradual downward path for over two years now – after reaching a peak of 8.1 per cent in June of 2022 – rents and mortgage interest costs have been stubbornly defying that trend.

If you bought shoes, clothing, a laundry machine or a new couch in recent months, there’s a chance you paid less than you would have a year ago. That’s because prices in all those categories have recorded year-over-year declines.

Used cars and trucks are another area where you might find deals, with prices down 5.7 per cent in July compared with the same month last summer.

But month after month, shelter costs – the biggest monthly outlay for most people – kept posting outsized gains. Now, that’s finally starting to change.

The best mortgage rates in Canada? We tested five websites in a head-to-head comparison

You won’t see any price declines yet in that component of the Consumer Price Index. In fact, mortgage interest costs were still up a hefty 21 per cent in July compared with the same time last year. Still, that was a smaller jump than the 22.3-per-cent increase Statistics Canada reported in June.

Expect more relief for homeowners renewing their mortgages, as the Bank of Canada continues to cut interest rates, with many economists expecting three more cuts this year. Declining rates soften the payment shock that awaits households who’ll be forgoing their rock-bottom, pandemic-era mortgage rates in the next couple of years.

There’s light at the end of the tunnel for those who have a landlord, rather than a mortgage, too. The rent index was up 8.5 per cent in July compared with the same month in 2023, down compared with an annual increase of 8.8 per cent in June.

That small decline masks some more meaningful gyrations in the rental market. Statistics Canada’s overall gauge of rents is a national measure that captures trends for both existing and new tenants. But the latest survey by rental platform Rentals.ca and housing analytics firm Urbanation, which focuses on what landlords are asking for available units, found that average rents were up a more modest 5.9 year-over-year in July.

And while advertised rents in places like Saskatchewan – one of the last outposts of affordability – are still posting double-digit annual increases, Vancouver and Toronto registered annual declines of 7.2 per cent and 4.6 per cent, respectively, according to the report.

– Erica Alini

10:10 a.m.

Are U.S. rate cuts coming soon?

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The U.S. economy seems to be in a sweet spot – and that’s an encouraging sign for Canada and its central bank.

Despite the market selloff earlier this month, the U.S. is not close to slipping into a recession, based on data that have inspired an equity rally in recent sessions. Meantime, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week that the annual U.S. inflation rate fell to 2.9 per cent in July – the first reading below 3 per cent since early 2021.

The numbers suggest the U.S economy is slowing, but not to an alarming degree.

Still, this deceleration should allow the Federal Reserve to start the process of monetary policy easing soon. Money markets are pricing in the first quarter-point cut from the Fed at its next decision on Sept. 18, followed by several more cuts this year.

This scenario should alleviate some pressure on the Bank of Canada, which began to cut interest rates in June, prompting questions about how much the central bank could differ from its U.S. counterpart.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has said there is a limit to policy divergence, but that Canada isn’t close to it. And it doesn’t look as if the BoC will test that limit if the U.S. is about to cut rates.

Why does rate divergence matter? Because in this instance, it’s putting downward pressure on the Canadian dollar, which has various tradeoffs. For example, a weaker loonie could lead to stronger exports, but on the flip side, the cost of imported goods would be higher.

– Matt Lundy

9:52 a.m.

Here’s how economists are reacting to today’s inflation report

Here’s a snapshot of how some economists are reacting:

James Orlando, director and senior economist, TD Economics

Canadian inflation continues to ease, with headline and core rates stabilizing around the mid-2-per-cent level. When stripping out the impact of shelter inflation, price growth is a meagre 1.2 per cent y/y. Looking forward, the downward impact of base effects will continue to support lower inflation next month, pushing the headline figure even further towards the BoC’s target.

The BoC makes its next rate announcement in two weeks and there is nothing stopping the bank from cutting rates by another 25 basis points. With inflation risks fading, the central bank’s focus has pivoted to weakness in the rest of the economy. Indeed, consumer spending looks to have taken a breather alongside a steady deterioration in the jobs market. Given that the policy rate remains at restrictive levels, even after two rate cuts in June/July, there is plenty of room for the BoC to keep cutting over the rest of this year.

Olivia Cross, North America economist, Capital Economics

The softer monthly gains in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core price measures in July suggest that the previous two months reflected normal volatility rather than a stalling of the downward trend in core inflation. With core inflation on track to surprise to the downside of the bank’s latest forecasts, there is not much now that could derail another interest rate cut at the early September meeting. If anything, there is a growing possibility of a larger 50 bp cut later this year.

The 0.3 per cent m/m seasonally adjusted rise in the headline CPI was smaller than we expected and brought the headline rate down to 2.5 per cent. That downside surprise was helped by a much softer 0.3 per cent m/m rise in food prices, after some unusually strong gains in May and June. Shelter price gains also moderated, rising by just 0.2 per cent m/m in July. That was largely due to another soft rise in rent prices, which suggests that the slowdown in rent inflation is happening earlier than we initially expected.

Ultimately, the softer 0.1 per cent m/m average gain in CPI-trim and CPI-median shows that the disinflationary pressures in July were encouragingly broad-based. For now, the three-month annualized rate is still 2.7 per cent, down from 2.9 per cent, but if the recent momentum continues then core inflation would undershoot the bank’s forecast for the average of CPI-trim and CPI-median to be 2.5 per cent in the third quarter. While that alone is probably not enough to prompt the bank to cut interest rates by a larger 50bp, it does leave the door open for the bank to take a larger step later this year if there is additional weakness in the labour market or activity data.

Benjamin Reitzes, managing director, Canadian rates & macro strategist, BMO Capital Markets

The core inflation figures were very encouraging, with the Trim and Median CPIs both up 0.1 per cent m/m. That cut the yearly rates one-to-two ticks to 2.7 per cent and 2.4 per cent, respectively, the lowest since April, 2021. Short-term inflation metrics also headed in the right direction, with the three-month rates both easing to 2.7 per cent and six-month rates holding just above 2 per cent.

The July CPI report should further cement a 25 bp rate cut from the Bank of Canada in September. There’s no urgency for policymakers to act more aggressively at this point, but rate cuts will keep coming as inflation continues to move toward 2 per cent and the economy sports a sizable output gap.

Read the full roundup of economist and market reaction.

– Darcy Keith

9:40 a.m.

Inflation highlights: Consumers see rent costs rise, car prices fall

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• July brought some moderation to core measures of inflation, which strip out volatile movements in the CPI. On a three-month annualized basis, the Bank of Canada’s preferred measures of core inflation rose by an average of 2.7 per cent in July, down from 2.9 per cent the previous month.
• “With core inflation on track to surprise to the downside of the Bank’s latest forecasts, there is not much now that could derail another interest rate cut at the early September meeting,” Olivia Cross, North America economist at Capital Economics, said in a client note.
• Rents are still an acute pressure. Those costs rose 8.5 per cent on an annual basis, down from the 8.8-per-cent pace in June.
• Consumers are seeing outright price declines in the vehicle industry. Prices for passenger vehicles fell 1.4 per cent in July from a year earlier. While prices are still rising for new vehicles, they fell 5.7 per cent for used cars. Statscan said that inventory levels have improved, relative to last year.
• From month to month, gasoline can swing widely in price. Those costs rose 2.4 per cent on a monthly basis in July. That followed a 3.1-per-cent drop in June.
• Grocery prices rose 2.1 per cent, year over year, in July, matching the increase that was seen in June. Adjusted for seasonality, food prices rose 0.3 per cent in July on a monthly basis, down from gains of 0.6 per cent in May and June.

– Matt Lundy

9:30 a.m.

July inflation data reinforces BoC shift in focus

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At its last interest rate decision in July, there was a subtle but important shift at the Bank of Canada. Instead of focusing mainly on the risk of a rebound in inflation, the bank’s six-person governing council began putting more emphasis on downside risks to economic growth and the possibility that inflation may undershoot the bank’s 2-per-cent target on the way down.

There was little in the July inflation numbers, published today, that will make Governor Tiff Macklem and his team second-guess this pivot. The relatively benign reading – a year-over-year CPI increase of 2.5 per cent – shores up the argument for a third rate cut on Sept. 4 and bolsters the case for additional rate cuts in October and December.

Crucially, the BoC’s two favourite measures of core inflation, which capture underlying inflationary pressures, came in softer than expected. That’s after two months where core measures were trending higher on a three-month basis, creating concerns about renewed inflationary pressures.

With inflation clearly on track back to the bank’s target, the biggest question is how fast the Bank of Canada will move to bring borrowing costs back to a more normal level. The central bank is mum on the issue, although it has been sending dovish signals, which has bolstered market expectations about three more quarter-point cuts before the end of the year. That would bring the bank’s key rate to 3.75 per cent.

There is a growing case for a relatively brisk pace of monetary policy easing. Economic growth is slow, unemployment is on the rise and there are clear risks ahead with the wall of mortgage renewals coming up over the next two years.

This was top of mind for Canada’s central bankers when they met last month to decide on interest rates, according to a summary of the discussions.

“There is a risk that consumer spending could be significantly weaker than expected in 2025 and 2026 given the number of households likely to be renewing their mortgage at higher rates,” the summary said.

“With the emergence of slack in the labour market, some members expressed concern that further weakness in the labour market could delay the rebound in consumption, putting downward pressure on growth and inflation.”

Look for Mr. Macklem and senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers to say more on this at the press conference after the Sept. 4 rate announcement.

– Mark Rendell

9:25 a.m.

Opinion: Welcome back to more or less ‘normal’ inflation

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The average inflation rate over the past 40 years was 2.5 per cent, which is exactly where we are now. Welcome back to more or less “normal” inflation.

Inflation’s recent peak was 8.1 per cent in June, 2022. Compared with that outrageous level, we’re doing great. Inflation is low enough now for the Bank of Canada to be comfortable about interest rate cuts. Food and shelter inflation are still a concern, but they’re losing momentum. Gone is the sense of turning your back for even a minute and finding the price of your everyday purchases has shot up.

Not feeling the joy of lower inflation just yet? Two reasons stand out, the first being an overlay of economic malaise. The economy has been growing slowly – just enough, really, to avoid meeting the technical definition of recession. Unemployment has risen in 2024 and the consumer spending binge that followed pandemic lockdowns is done.

The second reason is that inflation permanently altered household personal finances for the worse. The share of after-tax income needed for groceries, rent and mortgage payments is higher. The cost of sending kids back to school is also higher. A survey by Capital One Canada found that parents expect to spend $861 more per child overall on costs like food, daycare and extracurriculars, clothing and travel this year compared with 2023. Most of the increase, which takes average spending to $7,709 from $6,848, is accounted for by food costs.

Wages have been rising well above the inflation rate – at a 5.2-per-cent clip in July compared with a year earlier. But the cumulative weight of four years of higher-than-normal inflation feels hard to carry. The load does not get lighter as inflation declines, but there is still good news for households.

Normal inflation means a normal economy, with more manageable interest rates for people with mortgages and other debts. It also means more predictability about the cost of living your life, or at least fewer of those unwelcome surprises in the grocery store and elsewhere.

– Rob Carrick

9:15 a.m.

Here’s a list of July inflation rates for selected Canadian cities

Canada’s annual inflation rate was 2.5 per cent in July, Statistics Canada says. The agency also released rates for major cities, but cautioned that figures may have fluctuated widely because they are based on small statistical samples (previous month in brackets):

• St. John’s, N.L.: 2.3 per cent (2.8)
• Charlottetown-Summerside: 2.3 per cent (3.7)
• Halifax: 2.6 per cent (3.6)
• Saint John, N.B.: 2.7 per cent (2.6)
• Quebec City: 2.2 per cent (2.2)
• Montreal: 2.6 per cent (2.5)
• Ottawa: 2.4 per cent (2.7)
• Toronto: 3.1 per cent (3.4)
• Thunder Bay, Ont.: 2.7 per cent (1.6)
• Winnipeg: 2.0 per cent (1.5)
• Regina: 1.6 per cent (1.4)
• Saskatoon: 1.8 per cent (1.9)
• Edmonton: 2.4 per cent (2.7)
• Calgary: 2.9 per cent (3.6)
• Vancouver: 2.5 per cent (2.3)
• Victoria: 2.7 per cent (2.9)
• Whitehorse: 1.4 per cent (1.9)
• Yellowknife: 2.4 per cent (1.8)
• Iqaluit: 1.0 per cent (1.0)

– The Canadian Press

9:08 a.m.

Here’s a list of July inflation rates for Canadian provinces

Canada’s annual inflation rate was 2.5 per cent in July, Statistics Canada says. Here’s what happened in the provinces (previous month in brackets):

• Newfoundland and Labrador: 2.1 per cent (2.3)
• Prince Edward Island: 2.0 per cent (3.4)
• Nova Scotia: 2.3 per cent (3.5)
• New Brunswick: 2.9 per cent (2.8)
• Quebec: 2.3 per cent (2.2)
• Ontario: 2.7 per cent (3.0)
• Manitoba: 1.8 per cent (1.4)
• Saskatchewan: 1.6 per cent (1.4)
• Alberta: 2.7 per cent (3.0)
• British Columbia: 2.8 per cent (2.6)

– The Canadian Press

9:03 a.m.

Money markets fully priced for third Bank of Canada rate cut in September

Market reaction to the CPI data was pretty subtle, as the numbers largely matched Street expectations. The Canadian dollar did dip – by about one-10th of a cent to 73.38 cents US – given the fresh numbers would appear to almost guarantee a third Bank of Canada rate cut come September. The Canada two-year bond yield, which is particularly sensitive to central bank policy, fell by a few basis points too, to 3.319 per cent.

How market bets for further BoC rate cuts have shifted after today’s inflation data

Money markets are fully priced for a rate cut on Sept. 4, and in the wake of the data, traders see some - but modest - chance of a large 50-basis-point cut at that meeting. Implied interest rate probabilities in swaps markets suggest a 96-per-cent chance of a 25-basis-point cut, and about a 4-per-cent chance of a 50-basis-point cut, according to LSEG data. Prior to today’s data, swaps pricing suggested less than a 1-per-cent chance of the larger 50-basis-point cut.

Money markets are also nearly fully pricing in additional rate cuts at the October and December Bank of Canada meetings, which would bring the overnight rate to 3.75 per cent by the end of this year. Looking further out, markets are priced for an overnight rate of 2.63 per cent by October, 2025 - almost a full two percentage points below current levels. Of course, a lot can happen between now and then - but markets for the moment are anticipating steady declines in the Bank of Canada rate well into next year.

– Darcy Keith

8:45 a.m.

The new inflation numbers

Canada’s headline inflation rate is continuing to slow, bringing consumer price growth closer to the Bank of Canada’s 2-per-cent target.

The Consumer Price Index rose at an annual rate of 2.5 per cent in July, down from 2.7 per cent in June, Statistics Canada said Tuesday. It was the lowest inflation rate since March, 2021, and matched analyst expectations.

Statscan said the deceleration was broad-based, with price declines seen for travel tours, cars and electricity. Adjusted for seasonality, consumer prices rose 0.3 per cent in July.

While shelter is a financial headwind for many households, those costs are moderating slightly. They rose at an annual 5.7 per cent in July, down from 6.2 per cent in June. Mortgage interest costs were up 21 per cent from a year ago, although this is slower than peak increases of roughly 30 per cent.

Before Tuesday’s report, economists and investors considered it a certainty that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates for a third consecutive time in early September. There was nothing in the inflation report to alter the consensus thinking.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has stressed that the central bank is not on a “predetermined path,” but also that it’s “reasonable to expect further cuts” to its policy rate, which is currently at 4.5 per cent.

At the July rate announcement, Mr. Macklem highlighted the downside risks to the economy, comments that were interpreted as dovish by market watchers.

“We don’t need more excess supply,” he told a news conference. “We need growth to start picking up. We need job creation to start picking up, to absorb the excess supply in the economy and get inflation sustainably back to target.”

– Matt Lundy

8:30 a.m.

Canada’s inflation rate eased to 2.5% in July: Statscan

Canada’s annual inflation rate fell to 2.5 per cent in July from 2.7 per cent in June, Statistics Canada said on Tuesday. The reading matched estimates on Bay Street.

– Matt Lundy

7 a.m.

July inflation report to be released today

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Another month, another step closer to the Bank of Canada’s 2-per-cent inflation target. That’s what economists are expecting on Tuesday morning when the latest Consumer Price Index figures are released.

The consensus estimate from analysts is that annual CPI growth eased to 2.5 per cent in July from 2.7 per cent in June. This would mark the weakest reading for headline inflation since March, 2021.

On a month-to-month basis, consumer prices are expected to rise 0.4 per cent, with gasoline a notable contributor to the increase.

The inflation report precedes a probable interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada on Sept. 4. Money markets are pricing in a third consecutive quarter-point cut next month, which would take the central bank’s key lending rate to 4.25 per cent. Traders expect the BoC to lower rates at each of the remaining three decisions this year.

At the previous rate announcement in July, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem highlighted the downside risks to the economy – comments that were broadly interpreted by economists and investors as supportive of additional rate cuts in the near future.

“With the [inflation] target in sight and more excess supply in the economy, the downside risks are taking on increased weight in our monetary policy deliberations,” Mr. Macklem said at a press conference last month. “We need growth to pick up so inflation does not fall too much, even as we work to get inflation down to the 2-per-cent target.”

One area of weakness is the labour market. The unemployment rate has risen to 6.4 per cent as of July, nearly two percentage points higher than the record lows seen a couple summers ago. It’s taking longer for people to find work, and jobless rates have risen especially high among recent immigrants and young people.

Tuesday’s report has several areas worth watching. For example, rents have been rising sharply for quite a while, given pervasive shortages of housing throughout the country. And after a cooldown period, grocery prices have accelerated on a year-over-year basis for two consecutive months – bad news for shoppers looking to save on their grocery bills.

– Matt Lundy