Good morning, and happy World Philosophy Day to those who cerebrate.
Ontario’s Doug Ford says the country‘s premiers are united behind his call for a bilateral trade deal with the United States, cleaving off Mexico for separate negotiations. The federal government, meanwhile, says it’s open to the notion. More on that below, but first:
In the news
Stephen Harper has been appointed chair of the $169-billion public-sector pension-fund manager Alberta Investment Management Corp.
KingSett Capital Inc., one of the country’s most experienced commercial real estate investors, has halted redemptions and distributions from its flagship Canadian fund.
BHP CEO Mike Henry says Canada risks losing investments in critical minerals to global rivals if it doesn’t cut red tape.
Happening today
- The U.S. reports its jobs numbers for October. Statistics Canada reports the month’s raw-materials index, an early indicator used to measure inflation.
- Earnings include Deere & Co. I’ve been following the John Deere equipment maker because one of America’s oldest and most recognizable success stories has fallen into president-elect Donald Trump’s crosshairs over plans to build a plant in Mexico.
- And we’re on market watch after Nvidia Corp.’s earnings report showed booming demand but slowing revenue growth.
The macro picture
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Read the full story on how a newly discovered exoplanet could help us understand how planets are made here.
In focus
Why we’re all talking about a new trade deal
Ontario Premier Doug Ford said yesterday that every premier in Canada is behind his call for a new trade agreement with the United States. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said she has been advised by Robert Lighthizer, Trump’s former trade chief, that the federal and provincial governments should take a “Canada First” approach unless Mexico matches Trump’s planned tariffs on Chinese-made vehicles and parts.
And on Tuesday, the federal government said Ottawa shares Trump’s “grave concerns” that China is using the southernmost North American country as a back door for trade access, and is not ruling out sidelining Mexico in future trade talks with the U.S., The Globe’s Marieke Walsh and Adrian Morrow reported.
Michael Manjuris, professor and chair of Global Management Studies at the Toronto Metropolitan University, told me these moves are Canada’s way of showing Trump that the country is keenly aware of his concerns about China. In Trump’s view, China is investing in Mexico “and then circumventing the USMCA rules and bringing Chinese goods into the United States through Mexico.
“So he said maybe Mexico shouldn’t be part of this. And Canada is saying: ‘We’re open to that.’ ”
What do you make of the provinces and Ottawa coming out now with such a strong line against Mexico, and that Canada might be willing to deal with the U.S. on a separate agreement?
They’re saying they’re not immediately taking a position that is against Trump. You know, he’s the president-elect. He’s going to be leading the United States. So we have to deal with him if we’re going to talk about trade.
I think what’s important is Canada showing that they’re keeping an open mind and the signal to me, the sort of underlying signal to me, is to Mexico to say you need to get your house in order if you want to stay part of the so-called Three Amigos.
Is there any evidence behind what Trump and Ford are saying about Mexico being used by China as a “back door” into the U.S. and Canada?
There’s some evidence to show that they’re bringing goods into Mexico and then having them relabelled as Made in Mexico and sending them into the United States and Canada. So there is some evidence that that’s happening, which contravenes the idea of signing a free-trade pact. The idea is that it’s just for things that are made in one of the three countries.
China figured out that foreign direct investment is a great way to branch out to help the Chinese economy. But they also understand to a certain extent that in using (foreign direct investment), they’re going to have to follow the rules of some other areas of the world.
So they are investing for the purposes of technology transfer, for the purposes of, for example, building electric cars or at least parts for electric cars in Mexico, and then having them shipped to the U.S. or Canada. And then taking that profit or revenue that they’ve made and having that sent back to China. There’s nothing in the agreement that prevents them from doing that. Canadian companies do that. American companies do that.
Now, whether Trump agrees with it is a whole different story.
Canada is having discussions on a state level. How much impact will those talks have if tariffs are imposed federally?
Don’t forget that there’s still influence in the GOP by some of the major senators. Certainly state governments can have a major influence because they say to him: “You know, we helped get you into power, don’t screw this up.” Part of the negotiations is to try to reduce the impact and allow him still to say: “I’ve fulfilled my promise.”
Are there enough folks like this to offset the idea that Canada isn’t necessarily going to suffer through an extended economic nightmare?
The bottom line is that the side that did not win is the side that is promoting the doom and gloom. And that may be an overreaction. I don’t think there’s any question that some of the moves that Mr. Trump makes in the future will be, you know, revenge motivated or for personal gain. That’s just the character he is. That’s who he was last time. And that’s quite frankly who he presented in the campaign. And then the Americans elected him.
However, there are enough guardrails in the system in the United States, both legal and economic, that will at least minimize some of any negative impact that he might have.
If the U.S. is turning more protectionist no matter which party is in power, and we have premiers embracing this idea of “Canada First,” is Every Country First inevitable?
It’s probably true that the U.S. is likely becoming more protectionist under either party. But as a matter of fact, we reached out under Trump’s last presidency to multiple countries to enhance trade to offset the protectionist moves happening in the United States. And whether the Conservatives are in next or not, they will have that pressure from their constituents, particularly in Central Canada.
In certain sectors, we’ll see an increase in demand for Canadian goods because if he puts tariffs in place, our Canadian dollar will go down in value versus the U.S., which typically increases exports.
The other thing is it will allow us to start looking again at other markets. So there’s an opportunity that could also arise from this. And that’s what the role of our government is to me – to seek out these opportunities now that we understand what’s going to happen in the U.S.
Is it so much that there’s an opportunity now or that we weren’t proactive enough in the past decade or so in diversifying and preparing for this?
I think we were comfortable. We were comfortable just shipping everything down to the United States, they’re next door. And then the extension to Mexico wasn’t too bad because we’re on the highway anyway, the interstate going through the states. So we’ll just go a little further. I think that when a change happens, even if it’s a surprise for some, it offers an opportunity. And I think for us in Canada that opportunity in trade is the ability to diversify and become less reliant on just the Big Brother next door.
This interview has been edited and condensed.
Charted
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Should retirees who need a steady source of investment income hold dividend stocks instead of long-term government bonds? It depends. Click here to read more.
The outlook
On our radar and reading list
In style: Chanel’s latest cruise collection captures the essence of Marseille.
At the checkout: Metro Inc. plans to open more discount stores as inflation-hit shoppers keeping searching for value.
Off the mark: AIMCo clients face the consequences of undermining Alberta’s asset manager, Andrew Willis writes.
Up next: Friday brings Canada’s retail sales for September and the New Housing Price Index for October.
Morning update
Global stocks were mixed after AI bellwether Nvidia disappointed investors with slower revenue growth expectations. Wall Street futures were in positive territory, reversing course from earlier in the day, while TSX futures pointed as crude prices climbed.
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was flat in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 gained 0.41 per cent, Germany’s DAX rose 0.19 per cent and France’s CAC 40 gave back 0.28 per cent.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 0.85 per cent lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.53 per cent.
The Canadian dollar traded at 71.61 U.S. cents.