Air Canada has published a schedule with 16 per cent fewer domestic flights than in 2019 but the same number of total seats, using larger aircraft to move six million people on 51,000 flights in the key travel season.CARLOS OSORIO/Reuters
Canada’s largest airlines are signalling the full recovery in air travel is elusive, plotting summer schedules with fewer flights than in pre-COVID-19 times.
Carriers are withholding seats and flights to restrain capacity and ensure airfares are profitable as the airlines try to emerge from the pandemic, said John Grant, an analyst with OAG Aviation Worldwide Inc.
“Demand is going to be strong partly driven by the fact there’s going to be fewer seats around,” Mr. Grant said from London. “Airlines have been really disciplined about putting excessive capacity in the market … because that means the average fares go down. It becomes harder to make a profit.”
WestJet Airlines will fly 24 per cent fewer domestic flights in July and August compared with 2019, reducing available seats by 20 per cent, according to Cirium, the aviation data company. The Calgary-based airline’s international flight schedule is down by 20 per cent, with 16 per cent fewer seats.
Air Canada AC-T has published a schedule with 16 per cent fewer domestic flights than in 2019 but the same number of total seats, using larger aircraft to move six million people on 51,000 flights in the key travel season. The country’s dominant carrier, with roughly twice the flights of its western rival, plans to offer more than 21,000 international flights, just 1 per cent fewer than in July and August of 2019.
Airlines plan and publish schedules several months in advance, making flights available to gauge demand. They invariably make adjustments closer to departure dates, adding or scrubbing flights to match sales and manage costs.
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Mr. Grant said the schedules published at this point are placeholders that will be finalized in the new year. He said they can be viewed with 90 per cent confidence.
Discount carrier Flair Airlines has boosted its planned summer seat offerings and flights by more than 40 per cent over 2022. The Edmonton-based airline’s fleets consists of 19 Boeing 737s, capacity that falls short of the planned schedule, but will add leased planes in the months to come, said Stephen Jones, chief executive officer of Flair.
“Flair Airlines is regularly taking delivery of aircraft, and anticipate we’ll have 27 aircraft by the summer of 2023, at different bases across Canada,” he said.
Flair’s U.S. investor, 777 Partners of Miami, recently sold five new 737 Max 8 aircraft painted in Flair colours to Babcock & Brown Aircraft Management, a company partly held by WestJet owner Onex Corp. WestJet declined to lease or buy the planes from Babcock & Brown because of the cost of refitting the planes to WestJet’s specifications, which include first-class seating sections, according to two people familiar with the matter. The Globe is not naming them because they are not authorized to speak publicly on the matter.
WestJet declined to comment. Babcock & Brown, which is marketing the jets, did not respond to a request for comment.
Babcock & Brown also purchased from 777 Partners two 737s built for Bonza Aviation, an Australian airline startup owned by the Miami investor.
Another three Flair 737s owned by 777 Partners were offered for sale but found no buyers, and the planes are parked in Arizona. Flair referred questions on the sale to 777 Partners, which did not respond to e-mails.
Montreal-based Air Transat plans to offer 90 per cent of its 2019 seat capacity, and is ordering and receiving more Airbus A321s.
The late spring and summer of 2022 saw a return of about 90 per cent of prepandemic passenger volumes as the easing of COVID-19 released pent-up demand for travel. The surge came amid a staffing shortage at airlines, airports and the government agencies that provide customs and security services, leading to congested terminals and long delays for passengers.
Transport Minister Omar Alghabra held a closed-door meeting with government and aviation industry representatives in November to discuss ways to prevent a repeat of the snarls at airports. “The air industry was devastated by the COVID-19 pandemic, and as passenger volumes increased by over 280 per cent last summer, the industry faced a new crisis of congestion and delays,” Mr. Alghabra said in a statement.
“Transport Canada will continue to collaborate with partners to improve air transport system performance with a particular focus on the upcoming holiday season, and ensuring further improvements in advance of summer 2023 volumes,” the government said in a statement.
To ease pressure on the country’s airports, Monette Pasher, president of the Canadian Airports Council, is calling for changes that include redirecting the rent paid to the government into airport improvements, and speeding up the adoption of such digital solutions as facial recognition and trusted traveller programs.
“Canada’s airports have made significant progress since the worst days of the pandemic; they still have a long way to go,” Ms. Pasher said. “As an industry, we must continue working with the government and all partners in the ecosystem on mutually beneficial solutions. We hope that by having more dialogue in the coming months, we can make travel the best possible experience for all Canadians and visitors to our country.”