stocktrends.ca
The Stock
Transat A.T. Inc.
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Recent price
$16.53
Trend
In times of economic uncertainty discretionary spending takes a hit. However, judging by the third-quarter performance of stocks in leisure industries, many people are less concerned about losing their jobs than finding a place to spend their hard-earned cash.
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Economists talk about an increasing savings rate, but the market seems to see a revival in leisure spending.
The list of bullish stocks in the group rings a happy tune: recreational vehicle manufacturers Winnebago Industries, Thor Industries, and Polaris Industries are in motion. Callaway Golf and Brunswick Corp. are scoring again. The market tells of consumers making vacation plans, too.
Along with a revived airline sector, many hotel, resort and cruise line stocks have handily outperformed the broad market over the past three months. The share price trends of Royal Caribbean Cruises and Carnival Corp. suggest that employed workers would rather be poolside on the deck of a cruise ship than at home worrying about losing their jobs.
The Trade
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Transat A.T. Inc. is a big player in many Canadians' holiday plans. The tour operator has had its share of ups and downs with the rest of the tourism industry. Its stock dived from a high of $42.38 two years ago to bottom at $6.51 at the bear market low in March.
A financial crisis, economic recession, and swine flu epidemic scare made it a frightening ride for shareholders. But seasons change, and Transat has joined in with the renewed optimism that is lifting stocks in the travel business. Stock Trends Bullish since mid-June, Transat is a rehabilitated stock - even raising $55.25-million in a recent equity issue.
Trading volume in the stock was high last week, more than four times its weekly average, as the stock advanced 26 per cent and hit a new 52-week high. The stock's move was launched off the 13-week moving average trend line, a technical signal that the bullish trend will advance the stock further.
Investors encouraged by revived consumer confidence can buy into this trend and book a flight with the shares of Transat.
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The Upside
Clearing price resistance at $15.50 last week gives the stock some clear sky above, possibly another 20- to 30-per-cent move when the share price cracks the next resistance level above $18. Look for trading to remain active as the market gains confidence in the stock. Technical analysts like to see strong trading volume fuelling rallies.
Increased retail trading in Transat helps too, so last week's trading is a positive sign - weekly transactions were the highest since the stock's 2007 peak. The share price is up 58 per cent since mid-summer, but is not likely finished with its bullish move.
The Downside
Turning this story upside down would be the same factors that cripple the tourism industry - economic contraction or another health crisis. The former seems unlikely in the near term; the latter seems always a sneeze away. Investors entering this trade can use the prevailing trend line as a guide for exiting the stock if things go ill.
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The Stock Trends Weak Bullish indicator generally signals when a stock has broken below trend line support - a signal that flashes if Transat drops below $12.50.
Skot Kortje has been analyzing stock market trends for 15 years using trend analysis. His Stock Trends indicators have been published by The Globe and Mail since 1995.