Darkening credit trends For investors who believe that credit-rating trends serve as early indicators for stock markets and the economy, the outlook is bleak.
Around the world, the number of credit-rating decreases by Moody's Investors Service exceeded increases in every month from July to December of last year, according to data provided by the company. That's the longest stretch in more than two years.
The chart – which covers countries, companies and most other sellers of debt – shows downgrades increasing in the early 2000s after the bursting of the bubble in technology shares, and again in 2008 as the U.S. subprime-mortgage market melted down, global credit markets dried up and the financial system neared collapse.
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While the ratio of downgrades to upgrades isn't quite as bleak today, the trend is down. And since the data were available only through December, they don't reflect the wave of rating cuts that Moody's unleashed on several European countries earlier this month.
Go west, young worker One look at recent headlines will tell you which provincial economies are winning or losing.
A budget presented two weeks ago by Alberta Premier Alison Redford pledged increased government spending as higher oil prices boost tax revenues.
"Such a dramatic increase in spending is highly unusual," Francis Fong, an economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, said in a report.
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A few days later, the chairman of the Commission on the Reform of Ontario's Public Services recommended 362 ways to cut costs and fuel growth in the province.
Those two anecdotes illustrate the stark disparities in regional fortunes. The western provinces have outpaced the rest of Canada for much of the past decade and there's no sign of that trend reversing any time soon, Mr. Fong said in his report, which estimates growth rates for 2016 to 2021.
"Supported again by a strong profile for commodity prices, both Alberta and Saskatchewan are forecasted to lead the pack, with Ontario and British Columbia falling in the middle and the Atlantic Provinces taking up the rear," he wrote.
Relief for your grocery bill Food prices will rise more slowly this year than in 2011, as supplies of wheat and other key ingredients increase and competition among stores intensifies, predicts a new report. But inflation in food prices is still outpacing that of consumer goods in general.
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Food prices will climb between 2.5 per cent and 3 per cent in 2012, compared with 3.8 per cent in 2011, according to Kenrick Jordan, an economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns. The slowdown is one reason that Canada's central bank hasn't felt the need to raise interest rates to quell inflation.
But all foods aren't equal. The cost of meat, baked goods and vegetables will continue to rise relatively quickly this year because of low U.S. cattle supplies, high grain prices and a dearth of potatoes, Mr. Jordan says. Fruit and dairy prices are likely to show smaller increases.
"Concerns about widespread food price inflation are receding on an improving supply outlook and intensifying retail competition," Mr. Jordan said. "Overall, food price increases are expected to be notably lower, on average, this year than last, even though they are likely to remain higher than for overall consumer prices. While the Bank of Canada has kept its focus on underlying inflation, ebbing price pressures in food markets will mean one less worry in its efforts to support a modest economic recovery."